Six Electoral College Projections 2012-08-25 | electoral college projectionselectoral college projections
With aloof hours to go until the acclamation abutting on Acclamation Day, pollsters and predictors accept appear their final maps of the 2016 election—and best accede that Hillary Clinton will win, but no one agrees by how much.
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2016 Electoral College Map Projections for the Presidential ... | electoral college projectionsIf the projections of bread-and-butter and political analysts prove true, the Democratic presidential appointee will be alleged the champ already ballots are tallied on Tuesday night. Admitting anniversary map shows Clinton inching against victory, alike after absolute votes in Ohio and North Carolina, anniversary provides a altered aisle to victory.
Some adumbrate Clinton will ride into the White House with added than 300 Electoral Academy votes. Others accommodate a narrower path, with Clinton accepting a little over 290 votes on her projected aisle to victory.
Here are seven maps, from seven altered sources, that appearance analysts' forecasts for Tuesday night.
Associated Press
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The Politicus Presidential Projection Map For November 3, 2016 | electoral college projectionsThe Associated Press projects that Clinton could cull off a win as continued as there are no surprises in 17 absolutely Democratic states including California, Maryland, and Illinois and maintains leads in six analytical left-leaning states—think Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada. The aisle to 270 is tougher for Trump, who is projected to be able to calculation on 144 Electoral Academy votes in 18 absolutely Republican states and 46 in right-leaning states like Georgia, Alaska, and Arizona. Seventy-four Electoral Academy votes are up for grabs, according to AP predictions.
Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver auspiciously predicted every accompaniment that President Obama would win and lose during the 2012 election, so artlessly association are attractive to him and his FiveThirtyEight blog for answers this election. The 2016 archetypal projects Clinton has a 71.8% adventitious of acceptable on Tuesday, with 48.5% of the accepted vote and 301 Electoral academy votes. Trump, according to Silver's model, has a 28.2% change of acceptable on Tuesday with 45% of the accepted vote and 235 Electoral Academy votes.
Princeton Acclamation Consortium
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Electoral College map projection: Trump versus Hillary Clinton ... | electoral college projectionsSam Wang at the Princeton Acclamation Consortium wrote Monday that if Clinton does not win on Tuesday it will be "a behemothic surprise" accustomed the accepted acclamation models. In fact, the Acclamation Consortium has Clinton's win anticipation ambit in the 98-99% range. Their archetypal projects Clinton will win if she clinches Electoral Academy votes in Florida, Nevada and splits Maine's votes with Trump.
Larry Sabato
Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, who forecasted wins for President Obama in 2008 and 2012, alleged the acclamation Clinton on Monday, bulging the above Secretary of Accompaniment would assure 322 Electoral Academy votes. Sabato's aggregation projects the abutting calls will appear in both North Carolina and Ohio, admitting they doubtable Ohio will go for Trump. Florida, which Trump has afresh predicted he will win, goes to Clinton in the Sabato map.
Rothenberg & Gonzales
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Frontloading HQ: The Electoral College Map (6/13/16) | electoral college projectionsPolitical analysts Stu Rothenberg and Nathan Gonzales activity Clinton could airing abroad with 323 Electoral Academy votes on Tuesday if she is able to win the 100 votes in states that lean-Democratic. Included in that calculation is Maine, Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Trump can absolutely await on 132 votes, according to their bump and about 59 votes are likely. Twenty four votes—just Iowa and Ohio—are up for grabs according to their projection.
Moody's Analytics
Moody's Analytics' model, which has accurately alleged the aftereffect of the acclamation back the 1980s, says Clinton will win with 332 Electoral Academy votes. The projection, which is based on political and bread-and-butter trends, has Clinton demography Electoral Academy votes in all but three states forth the Eastern seaboard. Despite the boundless abutment for Trump, Moody's says President Obama's approval ratings and low gas prices accomplish for a "friendly environment" for Democrats.
Los Angeles Times
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Electoral College map 2016 projection: Hillary C. 294 | America ... | electoral college projectionsThe Los Angeles Times map gives Clinton the best absolute victory, bulging the Democrat will win 352 Electoral Academy votes on Acclamation Day and 186 for Trump.
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Six Electoral College Projections 2012-09-05 | electoral college projections["388"]
2016 Presidential Election Forecast Maps | electoral college projections["582"]
Nate Silver on Twitter: "Exclusive @FiveThirtyEight projection on ... | electoral college projections["1066.03"]
Frontloading HQ: The Electoral College Map (6/13/16) | electoral college projections["388"]
First Look: Projected 2024 Electoral Vote Allocation | electoral college projections