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Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump agitate easily during their activity on the sidelines of the G20 acme in Hamburg, Germany, 7 July 2017. Photograph: Michael Klimentyev/Sputnik/Kremlin Pool/EPA

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“It’s bigger than Watergate.” “It’s a cellophane sham.” “It’s a built-in crisis.” “It’s a acknowledged cliffhanger.”

Whatever abroad it may be, the adventure of Donald Trump and Russia comes bottomward to this: a sitting admiral or his advance is doubtable of accepting accommodating with a adopted country to dispense a US election. Trump acerb denies all atrocity and calls the analysis a “witch hunt”. But prosecutors see red flags everywhere.

The adventure could not be bigger, and the stakes for Trump – and the country – could not be higher.

Investigators are allurement two basal questions: did Trump’s presidential advance coact at any akin with Russian agents to amplitude the 2016 US presidential election? And did Trump or others breach the law to bandy board off the trail?

The adumbration Monday that a above Trump adopted activity adviser, George Papadopoulos, was abreast in April 2016 by a Russian acquaintance that Moscow had acquired “thousands of emails” absolute “dirt” on Hillary Clinton has fabricated the catechism of bunco added urgent. Prosecutors are investigating how far the altercation amid the two abandon of “dirt” on Clinton went, and what, if any, activity was taken.

Separately Monday, above Trump advance administrator Paul Manafort angry himself in to federal authorities to face accuse including cabal adjoin the United States, tax artifice and money laundering. Beginning in 2005, Manafort formed as a political adviser and business accomplice with Russian oligarchs and Kremlin-linked politicians in Ukraine, as did his aide Richard Gates III, who was additionally accusable on Monday.

Manafort abutting the Trump advance in March 2016 and accommodated in August afterwards his ties to Kremlin-linked abstracts came beneath accretion scrutiny.

The accuse adjoin Manafort are abstracted from but accompanying to the allegations of “collusion” amid the Trump advance command ample and Russian operatives. The attendance at the top of the advance of a doubtable accused of alive in abstruse for a adopted government, and of ambuscade money in adopted accounts to abstain tax payments, places the advance uncomfortably abutting to Kremlin interests.

But the accuse adjoin Manafort and Gates do not acknowledgment any attempted abetment of the 2016 election. Though Manafort alone offered “private briefings” on the acclamation to the Russian absolutist Oleg Deripaska in July 2016, Trump has denied any adeptness of Manafort’s affairs in the above Soviet amalgamation and has dedicated Manafort as a “very appropriate man”.

While a majority of the American accessible now believes that Russia approved to agitate the US election, opinions about Trump advance captivation tend to breach forth accessory lines: 73% of Republicans, but alone 13% of Democrats, accept Trump did “nothing wrong” in his affairs with Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin.

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The activity has the abeyant to banish Trump from office. Experienced acknowledged assemblage accept that prosecutors are investigating whether Trump committed an obstruction of justice. Both Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton – the alone presidents to face allegation affairs in the aftermost aeon – were accused of obstruction of justice.

But Trump’s fate is apparently up to the voters. Alike if able affirmation of atrocity by him or his accomplice emerged, a Republican aldermanic majority would apparently block any activity to abolish him from office. (Such an activity would be a actual rarity.)

Deepening abrogating perceptions absorbed to the Russia activity could, however, be the force that levels Trump, dooming a 2020 re-election bid. Or the admiral may yet be absolutely vindicated, re-elected and animated in the eyes of the people.

None of the three aldermanic committees investigating the matter, nor the appropriate counsel, Robert Mueller, has yet appear any affirmation of bunco amid the Trump advance and Russian operatives. The investigations accept an accessible timeline.

Here’s what you allegation to know:

It appears that prosecutors are belief austere charges, including obstruction of justice, adjoin Trump. (Weighing a allegation does not beggarly bringing a charge.) Current and above Trump aides are additionally beneath acute pressure, a point underscored by the arrest of Paul Manafort and Richard Gates on 30 October and by George Papadopoulos’s accusable plea.

Collusion. Did Trump or his advance “collude” with Russia to tip the 2016 election? Such bunco could booty abounding believable forms. Board adeptness be attractive into whether assembly of Trump’s agenda aggregation traded admonition with Russia-linked hackers about which voters the advance was best absorbed in. Or they adeptness be attractive for affirmation of conversations about the timing of the absolution of assertive afraid materials. Or they could be gluttonous admonition about abeyant hacking targets. (No affirmation has yet emerged of any of the above; Trump and his aides accept denied all wrongdoing.)

Obstruction of justice. Has Trump gotten in the way of law administration efforts to bulk out what happened? Board adeptness be attractive into whether Trump intended, by battlefront the FBI administrator James Comey on 9 May 2017, to cull the bung on the Russia investigation. Trump seems to accept accepted as much. “I aloof accursed the arch of the FBI,” Trump reportedly told Russians in the Oval Appointment the abutting day. “He was crazy, a absolute nut job. I faced abundant burden because of Russia. That’s taken off.”

But Trump’s anatomy of apperception is acute in belief a abeyant obstruction charge, and he has offered addition explanations for the battlefront of Comey, including that Comey was mismanaging the FBI. To anticipate Trump’s intent, board are apparently absorption on an antecedent letter to blaze Comey drafted by Trump but alone by the White House counsel. That letter has not yet been fabricated public.

Abuse of power. Trump may accept committed offenses that chronicle accurately to the appointment of the presidency, such as a corruption of the adjuration of appointment (to advocate the constitution), or an corruption of power, which might, for archetype involve, battlefront Comey out of claimed annoyance at Comey’s abnegation about to say that Trump was not alone a ambition of the Russia investigation.

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We don’t for the moment know, however, what absolutely the board – three aldermanic committees additional the appropriate admonition – are investigating. The official adjustment appointing Robert Mueller authorizes him to investigate “any links and/or allocation amid the Russian government and individuals associated with the advance of Admiral Donald Trump” and accompanying matters. Mueller is accustomed to arraign federal crimes.

Current and above aides. Trump aides are anticipation to face abeyant accuse including money laundering, authoritative apocryphal statements, abortion to annals as adopted agents, advance accounts violations and more. In May, the above civic aegis adviser Michael Flynn invoked built-in protections adjoin self-incrimination to abstain testifying afore a Senate committee. Paul Manafort was arrested on 30 October on money laundering, tax artifice and cabal charges. On the aforementioned day it was appear that adopted activity adviser had pleaded accusable to authoritative apocryphal statements to the FBI. Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner stood alfresco the White House that ages and said: “I did not collude.” The above advance aides Carter Page and Roger Stone accept both been questioned by board and asked to about-face over abstracts and records. The advocate general, Jeff Sessions, has dedicated himself adjoin accusations of authoritative ambiguous statements to Congress. All these men – Flynn, Manafort, Kushner, Page, Stone and Sessions – accept denied wrongdoing.

Congress. The abbreviate acknowledgment to this catechism is addition question: who controls Congress? As continued as Republicans are in charge, Trump is not acceptable to face allegation affairs or to be removed from office. A two-thirds majority in the Senate is appropriate to abolish a admiral from appointment through impeachment. Afore such action, a simple House majority would be appropriate to canyon accessories of impeachment.

Public opinion. If accessible assessment swings precipitously adjoin the president, however, his anchor on adeptness could slip. At some point, Republicans in Congress may, if their capacity will it, about-face on Trump.

Criminal charges. Apart from impeachment, Trump could, perhaps, face bent charges, which would (theoretically) comedy out in the cloister arrangement as adjoin to Congress. Mueller has the adeptness to book bent accuse adjoin Trump, but it’s a bulk of agitation amid advisers and prosecutors whether Trump, as a sitting president, may be prosecuted. It’s never been approved before.

Losing re-election. The best acceptable bulk Trump would pay, if he were perceived as accusable of wrongdoing, would be a 2020 re-election loss. Every admiral to win re-election aback the additional apple war did so with an approval appraisement in the 49% or 50% ambit or better. Trump’s boilerplate approval appraisement is in the mid-to-upper 30s. The cardinal could accelerate alike added if, for example, one of his above aides or chiffonier assembly is accusable on money bed-making charges.

“You are witnessing the distinct greatest WITCH HUNT in American political history – led by some actual bad and conflicted people! #MAGA” Trump tweeted in June. Elsewhere, Trump has decried what he says are the careless costs of investigating the case.

Those assertions would assume to be attenuate by developments such as the arrest of Manafort and Papadopoulos’s accusable plea. But abounding factors go into anticipation the bulk of the investigation.

Partisan split. Are the admiral and his aggregation the victims of a witch-hunt? Your acknowledgment to the catechism apparently depends on your political affiliation.

Seventy-three per cent of registered Republicans anticipate Trump did “nothing wrong” in his affairs with Russia and Putin, according to a Marist poll in July. But alone a 36% boyhood of US adults all-embracing anticipate Trump did “nothing wrong”, the poll found. Forty-one per cent of Democrats said they anticipation Trump had done “something illegal” and 59% said Trump’s advance assembly had burst the law.

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Record of conduct. Apart from accessible opinion, what do we accept to go on? A almanac of conduct by Trump and his aides activity aback decades, which is authentic by clandestineness and denials.

Trump has denied his accomplished links to Russian investors and ally and a continued history of attempted business deals in Russia, while praising Putin. Trump aides denied the accident of affairs and conversations with Russian agents that came to ablaze anyway. When a June 2016 Trump Tower activity was revealed, Trump addled the accessible as to its purpose. His tax returns, which could acknowledge ahead bearding banking relationships, abide closed to the public.

Faith in the aphorism of law. Is this a witch-hunt? A abrogating acknowledgment relies on a acceptance in the aphorism of law in the United States.

Have board proceeded logically, in acknowledgment to a reasonable suspicion of wrongdoing, and in accordance with aldermanic and amends administration guidelines?

Republicans in Congress accept accustomed the allegations adjoin the Trump advance acceptable acceptance to beforehand investigations in three committees. Trump’s own amends administration saw fit to booty the footfall of appointing Mueller.

Mueller, who was called FBI administrator by George W Bush and captivated over by Barack Obama, enjoys a acceptability for candor amid admiral on both abandon of the aisle. Trump has said Mueller “is very, actual acceptable accompany with [James] Comey, which is actual bothersome” but additionally said “Robert Mueller is an atonement man”. Mueller’s critics accept accused his operation of accepting a accessory angle based on accomplished advance donations to Clinton and Obama fabricated by at atomic bristles acknowledged aggregation members. But others accept argued the donations are neither abnormal nor affirmation of anti-Trump bias.

A arrangement of attacks. Trump’s witch-hunt allegation is not his aboriginal advance on the aphorism of law. He branded Comey a cheat and said the FBI was a “mess”. He has attacked board and courts afterwards rulings he did not like on clearing activity or his proposed biking ban. He about criticized the advocate accepted for a accommodation he did not accede with. As president, Trump has displayed a different addiction to accomplish bottomless attacks on the amends department. But additionally as president, he has a different adeptness to amplify those attacks and to accomplish them devastatingly effective, acerbic acceptance in the process.

A arrangement of obstruction? Trump’s addiction to advance the action may ultimately backfire. Acknowledged advisers accept warned that Trump’s attacks on the appropriate admonition analysis and amends administration could bulk to obstruction of amends by the president.

If Trump’s attorneys accept warned him to stop analytical with the process, however, he has not heeded that advice. On 27 October, Trump tweeted: “It is now frequently agreed, afterwards abounding months of COSTLY looking, that there was NO bunco amid Russia and Trump.”

That wasn’t true, and it could be apparent as an attack to access the aftereffect of the case. Later the aforementioned day, letters emerged that the aboriginal accuse in the case had been filed. And aloof three weeks earlier, the Republican administrator of the Senate intelligence committee, Richard Burr, said: “The affair of bunco is still open.”

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