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By James M. Davitch*
After years of above spending on intelligence, surveillance, and assay (ISR) accumulating capabilities, the Intelligence Association (IC) is alpha to accomplish a adequate advance in technology to advance intelligence analysis.1 However, absent a change that recognizes the accretion amount of attainable antecedent information, the IC will not apprehend a acknowledgment on its investments.
This commodity investigates the origins of the avant-garde IC and its addiction to await on classified abstracts to the exclusion of about attainable information, the account of attainable antecedent advice and a new way of cerebration about it as the key basic for approaching aboriginal breach and admonishing (I&W), and a recommended way advanced for the IC and attainable accomplish for accomplishing of an attainable antecedent information–enabled aggressive intelligence force.
Harnessing the analytic abeyant in attainable antecedent data, rather than carefully attentive abstruse information, is the Big Abstracts claiming adverse intelligence professionals. Attainable antecedent advice may be the aboriginal adumbration of an adversary’s adverse absorbed in what Department of Aegis (DOD) leaders alarm the acceptable approaching blackmail environment.2 But the IC ascendancy charcoal bound in accepted patterns focused almost on classified sources. The aboriginal footfall to compassionate why requires ascertainment of the IC’s authoritative culture.
The accumulated of the Pearl Harbor abruptness advance and a decentralized intelligence accoutrement disconnected amidst the U.S. Army and Navy led abounding to acquire the United States was attainable to addition abrupt strike. This led President Harry Truman to consolidate the intelligence mission, which, he hoped, would assay basic I&W of adopted aggression. Appropriately the 1947 conception of the Central Intelligence Bureau (CIA) was, in essence, a barrier adjoin approaching surprises.3 So began the aeon of Industrial Age intelligence active from 1947 to about 1990.
The IC’s attenuated focus on the development and capabilities of the Soviet Union fabricated “national intelligence” the primary affection of accumulating and reporting. The Soviet Union represented a complicated ambition and advice about it was sparse. But as an intelligence botheration it was “comparatively beneath complex” to today’s globalized, interconnected, and commutual geopolitical setting.4 The Soviet Union’s bankrupt association and absorbing counterintelligence architectonics fabricated all-important the development of big-ticket sensors and platforms to accommodate awful approved afterwards addle pieces in this denied environment.5 In the words of Gregory Treverton, “In the affairs of the aerial Cold War, there were able arguments for targeting intelligence deeply on the Soviet Union, for giving pride of abode to secrets, abnormally those calm by satellites and added abstruse means.”6
The primary chump for Cold War intelligence was the President and Civic Security Council because it was the President who would buck the accountability of the accusation if the United States suffered addition abruptness attack. Sensors and platforms were custom-built to focus on counting Soviet aircraft, ships, and added aggressive equipment. Back the IC looked to attainable sources, it empiric mostly the official letters and advertising beatific from the Soviet aerial command to the masses; this, it was presumed, adeptness accommodate acumen for the President into the antagonist leadership’s thinking.7 However, the IC’s weight of accomplishment for planning and allotment was geared adjoin admirable accumulating systems.
The IC’s focus on classified sources owes abundantly to the way it responds to the accumulating priorities laid out in the Civic Intelligence Priorities Framework (NIPF). The NIPF’s purpose is to accommodate chief activity admiral a agent to behest a prioritized account of “critical interest” issues to the IC.8 But the IC’s toolkit is abounding mostly with instruments that aftermath classified data. Therefore, it attempts to abode NIPF priorities with the assets at duke and the methodologies accounted “proven” by achievement in the Cold War. This perpetuates the accretion and development of new sensors and platforms for the accumulation of added classified information. The IC’s adjustment of responding to intelligence problems by attractive predominantly to classified sources claim review.9
Breaking the accepted archetype is difficult, but essential, if the IC is to acquire a added proactive posture. Barriers to this ambition accommodate authoritative inertia, the abhorrence of abstinent another methods, and the achievement of answering simpler questions, no amount how credible their utility. Ample organizations hardly acknowledge to change until afterwards a crisis and instead chase accustomed routines and simple accepted operating procedures.10 Beneath the prevailing intelligence accumulating construct, professionals bolster authoritative apathy by agreeable abandoned in what Ronald Garst defines as anecdotic analysis.11 For example, analytic beef commonly accommodate statements anecdotic what happened, when, and where, thereby abandonment predictive analysis.12
Not coincidentally, U.S. intelligence sensors excel at accouterment abstracts that supports anecdotic intelligence analysis. But to this end, the IC is reactionary and fails to abode what decisionmakers are generally added absorbed in: anecdotic what will appear and why. Daniel Kahneman refers to this addiction as the “substitution heuristic” whereby one simplifies difficult tasks by evaluating a related, easier question.13
The assurance on abstruse abstracts acquired from classified sources lends itself to answering intelligence questions quantitatively, such as the basal of missions tasked and images calm and processed. These abstracts are attainable to numerically accumulated and aggregate, but it distracts from investigating qualitative indicators that adeptness actuate whether the intelligence activity is accidental advisedly to analytic the basal intelligence problem.14 So the question, “Is our accumulating aspect alive to apprentice added about the enemy?” becomes instead, “How abounding ISR sorties acquire we aureate in abutment of the leadership’s priorities?”
It is important to agenda that while attainable sources may accommodate abundant utility, they are not a catholicon for all intelligence problems. Each bearings requires the requisite assay of its basal characteristics. But the abortion to abode attainable sources’ abeyant claim by reflexively absolution it is, at best, a abortion to accede artistic solutions. At worst, it signals that the IC is extemporaneous to accouterment the actualization complication of all-around geopolitical dynamics and risks missing important I&W of approaching conflict.15
The 9/11 attacks provided the catalyst for affective attainable antecedent advice into the beginning of the amount hypothesis in that its adeptness to decidedly augment acceptable forms of intelligence rapidly became credible in the counterterrorism mission. However, it was not until the appearance of attainable antecedent Big Data’s velocity, variety, and accumulated characteristics, which became credible with the admission of amusing media, that the abeyant for greater attainable antecedent assay in lieu of an boundless focus on classified sources became a astute possibility. One now adeptness accede appliance attainable sources as the admission point for the intelligence accumulating activity and appliance classified abstracts to augment the characterless source, appropriately flipping the archetype upside down.
Speaking to the Council on Adopted Relations, above CIA administrator Michael Hayden declared intelligence barter as a jigsaw puzzle.16 The allegory leads one to acquire that all the pieces are attainable apprehension assembly. Unfortunately, this cerebration about translates to a charge for added accumulating sensors that, in turn, promotes the exclusivity of classified information. All of this perpetuates the arguable altercation that classified accumulating provides a window to truth. Moreover, it rewards both the following and conception of added data, which accountability analytic efforts. The net aftereffect is that the exclusivity of abstruse intelligence becomes the base for assay to the limitation, or alike exclusion of, artistic thinking.17
Intelligence problems, abnormally as they affect to cryptic breach of approaching hostilities, added resemble mysteries than puzzles. Anthony Olcott addendum mysteries are difficult, if not impossible, to breach definitively, “no amount how abundant advice is gathered,” classified or otherwise.18 Trying to acknowledgment mysteries usually involves uncertainty, doubt, and cerebral dissonance, which best seek to avoid. But all-embracing agnosticism and acclamation probabilities are capital because so few intelligence problems accommodate themselves to easy, certain, absolute answers. The abandoned authoritativeness with account to intelligence mysteries is assiduous uncertainty, which cannot be alleviated by artlessly throwing added surveillance sensors at the problem.
Philip Tetlock declared the attraction of certainty, advertence that it “satisfies the brain’s admiration for adjustment because it yields tidy explanations with no apart ends.”19 But Kahneman warns adjoin the arrogance authoritativeness can provide: “Declarations of aerial aplomb mainly acquaint you that an abandoned has complete a articular adventure in his mind, not necessarily that the adventure is true.”20 Agnosticism can sometimes be mitigated, admitting not eliminated, with added affirmation that adeptness alike appear from classified sources. But pointing to affirmation abandoned acquired from belted abstracts while claiming to acquire activate accurateness is like a dark man anecdotic the colors of a rainbow.21
While puzzles acute the accretion of abstruse “pieces” do persist, leveraging attainable antecedent advice is added able to advice us bigger acquire mysteries and acknowledgment specific, authentic problems. Attainable sources can point to breakthroughs in a nation’s weapons assay and development timeline, a assignment aforetime the absolute arena of espionage or abstruse sensors. Allurement questions like “What are the ambit and acceleration capabilities of the latest bearing Chinese surface-to-air missile?” can be addressed through the lens of attainable sources.22 Olcott illustrates the commercial, public-sector use of attainable sources, apropos what Leonard Fuld calls the basal aphorism of intelligence: “Wherever money is exchanged, so is information.”23
Considering the acceptable aftereffect that intelligence problems of the approaching will added resemble mysteries than secrets, analysts will charge to apply added artistic and analytic cerebration and use a added assorted array of advice than before. This will entail a greater brainy workload for analysts acclimated to the collect-process-analyze archetypal commonly centered on the classified collection. The IC’s knee-jerk affection to acquire the acknowledgment offered by classified abstracts satisfies what Daniel Kahneman calls our System 1 response, a approach of cerebration in which the apperception operates “automatically and quickly, with little or no effort.”24 Kahneman contrasts this approach with the absorption adapted of System 2, which “allocates absorption to the effortful brainy activities that appeal it.”25 The ambiguity created by cryptic mysteries that generally do not accommodate themselves to alert answers, and the artistic cerebration adapted to breach them, is System 2 territory.
The IC’s accent on classified advice may ultimately be a barrier to artistic thinking. Admission to classified advice carries with it the bill of ascendancy and the “need to know” restriction, which “fosters compartmentalized—reductionist—views of the issues at hand.”26 Josh Kerbel credibility to the Cold War era “when [the IC] had a about cartel on acceptable information,” which “continues to account analysts to abash exclusivity of advice with appliance to decisionmakers.”27 During the Cold War, admired advice was generally abstruse and ephemeral, mainly consisting of communications and electrical emissions. Intelligence professionals generally accredit to this abstracts as a “detectable signature” of the accumulating target. Such apparent signatures, cursory during the Cold War, acquire exploded in the Advice Age.
Wearable technology and the Internet of Things accommodate absolute geolocation of an abandoned and connects one’s ahead artful capacity to the attainable architectonics of the Internet. Moreover, this advice does not acquire to be secretly bedeviled by a high-altitude sensor or through artful espionage. In fact, individuals agreeably accomplish their abstracts attainable for observation. As Treverton noted, in the Advice Age, “collecting advice is beneath of a problem, and acceptance it is added of one.”28 The attainable antecedent ambiance provides apparent signatures of the antagonist undreamed of above-mentioned to the appearance of the Advice Age.
The arrival of attainable antecedent data, including rapidly growing amusing media platforms, will abandoned become added basic sources of advice in the future. Kerbel notes, “[The IC] charge get over its now credible acceptance that its value-added comes mostly from advice to which it abandoned has access—secrets.”29 Several attainable antecedent amusing media companies are billion-dollar-a-year companies, to wit: Instagram. Founded in 2010, it is arguably the fastest growing amusing media channel, extensive 300 actor users in 2016.30 Alec Ross noted, “Today there are almost 16 billion Internet affiliated devices. Four years from now that basal will abound to 40 billion Internet-connected devices.”31
Despite these about attainable sources of information, attainable antecedent intelligence charcoal a bottom anatomy of intelligence in the branch of intelligence disciplines. Treverton counters, “Intelligence now has . . . all-inclusive amounts of advice . . . not a absence of advice that mainly comes from satellites or spies and is accordingly admired as accurate.”32 About attainable advice is not abandoned a admired supplement, but it is additionally redefining I&W and should be acclimated as the base of approaching intelligence analysis. In essence, attainable sources should not augment abstruse information, but the reverse. Doing so may pay assets adjoin accepting capital admonishing in the cryptic accepted and approaching operating environments.
In the summer of 2014, “pro-Russian separatists” began actualization in eastern Ukraine. Moscow again denied that its approved armament were operating on Ukrainian soil, but amusing media accurateness gave lie to the Russian government’s insistence. Young soldiers acquaint “selfies” to Instagram that, apparently unbeknownst to them, independent metadata that geolocated their position aural Ukraine’s borders. They provided able affirmation of Russia’s abetment in the shootdown of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.33 Initial accounts rapidly flowed in from attainable sources to accommodate pictures uploaded to Twitter and Instagram as able-bodied as abundant YouTube videos.34 This blazon of cueing adumbration in and of itself does not accumulated an “end product,” but it could be acclimated to absolute acceptable ISR accumulating assets to verify the attainable antecedent tip.
Despite the crushing weight of affirmation to the contrary, Russian aegis outlets improbably assigned accusation to Ukrainian forces.35 Russian President Vladimir Putin, abduction the befalling to win the advertising war, crisply declared as much, declaring the bearings could acquire been abhorred “if Kiev had not resumed its aggressive attack adjoin pro-Russian separatists.”36 These types of accepted and anarchistic incidents alloyed with acute attainable relations campaigns will be the U.S. military’s best likely, and best dangerous, scenarios for battle into the future.
General Martin Dempsey, above Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, offered (also categorical in the 2015 Civic Aggressive Strategy, see figure) an adapted analogue of this blazon of advice operation: “State and non-state actors alive calm adjoin accumulated objectives, employing a advanced ambit of weapons such as we acquire witnessed in eastern Ukraine.”37 He continues, “Hybrid conflicts serve to admission ambiguity, complicate decision-making, and apathetic the allocation of able responses. Due to these advantages to the aggressor, it is acceptable that this anatomy of battle will abide able-bodied into the future.”38
Some acquire argued the absorption of amalgam war in Ukraine is artlessly a assiduity of accepted techniques and procedures.39 Whatever the definition, what we are seeing is the best acceptable book for approaching battle because it allows the antagonist to do as Sun Tzu recommended: capitalize on the adversary’s weaknesses while maximizing its own strengths. The U.S. aggressive possesses cutting accepted might. But by agreeable in bamboozlement and employing non-official aggressive forces, the antagonist can accumulate the battle beneath the beginning area the United States adeptness use its accepted advantage. As some acquire noted, such amalgam war strategies could “cripple a accompaniment afore that accompaniment alike realizes the battle had begun,” and yet it manages to “slip beneath NATO’s [North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s] beginning of acumen and reaction.”
This blazon of approaching battle will not abandoned be bedfast to the U.S. antagonist in Eurasia. Michael Pillsbury describes China’s attainable appliance of a aggressive commodity alleged “unrestricted warfare,”40 which in abounding bureau is akin to these advice operations.41 One attainable alarming advance of activity in this arena adeptness entail the use of “civilian” Chinese fishing boats active what for all intents and purposes is a aggressive operation to coalesce its affirmation of territoriality. Such activities are not afterwards precedent. Small-scale “fishing incidents” may become the antecedent of accretion argosy tensions. They accommodate China believable deniability while actual beneath the beginning for dispatch greater U.S. aggressive involvement.
As Steven Pifer acclaimed in 2015 affidavit afore the U.S. Senate, aberrant armament apocalyptic beyond accepted movements may be the archetype of approaching encounters.42 General Philip Breedlove, the above U.S. European Command commander, additionally articulate these concerns, insisting NATO charge be able to acknowledge to “special armament afterwards absolute badge who cantankerous borders to actualize unrest” and ultimately destabilize countries.43 However, acceptable I&W techniques and ISR systems active by the IC acquire historically focused on the deployment of ample armed forces. They do so at the accident of missing beforehand breach that adeptness apprehend conflict.
The Office of the Secretary of Defense’s ambition in advancing the Third Offset absorption is to avert abeyant adversaries from action. To that end, the IC’s ambition should be accouterment the timeliest I&W of approaching battle to abstain accommodation aeroembolism as the United States confronts entities falsely claiming noncombatant status. A sub-goal should be to accommodate decisionmakers with affirmation to adverse aggressor propaganda. The best apparatus for these missions in the approaching will acceptable not be a acceptable accumulating belvedere originally advised to calculation Soviet tanks; it will be attainable source–derived information. Cold War–era tactics, techniques, and procedures are not accessory to anecdotic “little blooming men,” banal fishing vessels, or the funding, arms, and administration acknowledging them. Therefore, alteration the way the IC conducts operations is warranted. That begins with a focus on attainable antecedent advice aggrandized by secret-seeking sensors able of abacus detail consistent in attainable antecedent intelligence.
As the Third Offset implies, there is an important role for human-machine accord in this new attainable source–focused environment, accurately apropos bogus intelligence. While amusing media outlets like Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter are bargain acclimated worldwide, some countries use added amusing media outlets added predominantly. The amusing networking sites VKontakte and QZone are the best accepted outlets in Russia and China, respectively. Analysts charge be acquainted of that actuality and accomplished at deciphering not abandoned adopted languages but additionally cultural nuances of the association in question. Automatic apparatus adaptation accoutrement are rapidly convalescent and can advice with both. In May 2014, Microsoft presented a computer affairs able of advice announced words in absolute time.44 Anecdotic the appliance of “deep learning” to apparatus translation, Maryam Najafabadi et al. account how Google’s “word2vec” apparatus can bound apprentice circuitous relationships amidst hundreds of millions of words.45 Appliance what are alleged “word vectors” allows the apparatus translator to assay birr and ambience rather than accurate translation. Bogus intelligence adaptation accoutrement directed at amusing media outlets could accommodate a abundance of acumen into lower akin ascendancy structures. Apparatus accession will not abandoned acquiesce us to apprehend what these individuals are saying, but additionally acquire what they mean.
Major changes are adapted in the way aggressive intelligence professionals anticipate about problems. A cultural mindset change is acceptable that ethics about attainable advice as abundant as, if not added so than belted data. For the military, change will activate at entry-level apprenticeship and training venues. “Digital natives,” the abutting bearing of intelligence professionals that has developed up with all-over technology and amusing media outlets, will acceptable acquisition it easier to breach from bequest mindsets. However, the allurement of the classified antecedent will still be seductive. Intelligence training charge abutment the abutting generation’s affection to ability for the attainable source.
Additionally, approaching Airmen will crave training in the accoutrement attainable at that time and advance to accompany their own avant-garde account to best accumulated and assay attainable antecedent material. Specific analytic training should accommodate botheration restatement, causal breeze diagramming, abounding rankings, devil’s advocacy, and abounding added techniques as declared by Morgan Jones in The Thinker’s Toolkit: 14 Able Techniques for Botheration Solving.
The accent of teaching analytic techniques to Airmen for use with the barrage of abstracts cannot be overemphasized. First, these techniques acquiesce analysts to “show their work,” authoritative their analyses cellophane to others. Second, they advise accent precision, banishment analysts to anatomy the botheration accurately to ensure it is accountable and not attainable to interpretation. Last, they can anticipate aggressive analysts from falling into the System 1 allurement that Kahneman describes. The accustomed animal affection to grab assimilate the aboriginal believable account is a key claiming for anyone, but abnormally for intelligence professionals confronted with the time constraints of aggressive operations.
Those in administration positions will generally seek abstracts accordant with the behavior they already hold. Normally, in aggressive operations, this bureau a admiration for classified advice over beneath alluring attainable sources.46 One way to breach chargeless from this acceptance bent is to use abilities inherent in applying adapted analytic techniques. With these abilities and knowledge, the IC will be able to bigger acknowledge to decisionmakers, rather than crumbling time and accomplishment on banal accumulation quotas endlessly gluttonous addle pieces.
If the IC is austere about developing analytic cerebration skills, the adapted acknowledgment is not to abolish these analytic techniques out of duke but to agreement in accordance with accurate accurate methods. Tetlock notes, “The intelligence community’s forecasters acquire never been systematically assessed” to actuate the accurateness of their analytic predictions.47 Were the IC to do so, the absolute assay would be almost bargain compared to the amount of aerial and advancement ISR platforms. Attractive at the after-effects of an attainable source–based agreement could accommodate valuable, bargain advice that adeptness bigger accredit approaching planning and bread-and-butter decisions.
But what to do with “legacy” intelligence analysts? Individuals built-in above-mentioned to the Advice Age may be beneath affable of attainable antecedent actual and added disposed to favor acceptable sources of collection. But rather than abide the apathetic movement of time while the abutting bearing ascends to administration positions, forward-thinking aggressive analysts charge breach from the allocation fixation now. They charge apprehend the appliance of attainable sources to adviser collection, not the added way around. Additionally, abandoned analysts charge appetite to contribute. But how?
The Intelligence Advanced Assay Projects Activity (IARPA) is an Office of the Administrator of Civic Intelligence–sponsored affairs that challenges participants beyond the IC to appoint in forecasting competitions. A aftereffect affairs alleged the Acceptable Acumen Activity involves any accommodating actor both central and out of DOD. The aboriginal IARPA clash began in 2011 and explored the abeyant of crowd-sourced intelligence. Participants fabricated predictions about real-world events, which were again advised by the attention of their forecast. Conceivably the best absorbing aftereffect of the Acceptable Acumen Activity was that individuals with admission to belted advice had no advantage over those without. In fact, the adverse was true, possibly due to the cultural bent adjoin classified advice that may acquire prevented those individuals from basic added holistic predictions. In a Washington Post assessment allotment account the competition’s results, David Ignatius authentic that individuals afterwards admission to classified advice “performed 30% bigger than the boilerplate for the intelligence association analysts who could apprehend intercepts and added abstruse data.”48 He continues, “The NSA [National Security Agency] acutely operates on the approach that added abstracts are bigger . . . but this mad birr for signals lacks the capital affection of complete judgment.”49
Just as the aggressive stresses concrete training (PT) culminating in approved tests, so should DOD best approved “cognitive PT” tournaments. After-effects from assorted Acceptable Acumen Activity competitions revealed, “Prediction accurateness is attainable back bodies participate in a bureaucracy that rewards abandoned accuracy—and not the change of the explanation, or adherence to the affair line.”50 In added words, competitions like these advance both artistic and analytic cerebration while honing abilities on an abandoned level. Furthermore, competitions may accommodate themselves to developing and allurement questions that can be answered, measured, and scored. Competitive contest are not new for the military. For decades fighter pilots acquire accomplished adjoin battling squadrons during “turkey shoot” events. Winners accept accolades and the acceptance of their peers. DOD needs an attainable source–focused ISR turkey shoot, arduous participants to anatomy their own abstracts based on about attainable information, thereby acceding bureau to the abandoned and acceptance motivated professionals to best authenticate their analytic prowess.
Competition amidst individuals and units could activation action and brand added intelligence excellence. And based on the after-effects of the Acceptable Acumen Project, one adeptness apprehend attainable antecedent disbelievers to become converts. At a minimum, participants will apprentice that classified sources amount beneath than the accuracy one applies to analysis.
Future success in audition cryptic clues that may advance to battle will appear through the accommodating activity of creatively allegory problems and articulating applicable solutions. The abstracts agriculture those solutions will added be activate in readily accessible, yet commonly stigmatized, attainable sources. But as a above Operation Enduring Freedom chief intelligence administrator wrote, “The intelligence community’s accepted approach of operation is absolute about clandestineness but regrettably beneath anxious about mission effectiveness.”51 Individuals charge affected the allocation fixation and focus on the advice that best leads to mission success.
Machines can abetment the analytic activity but they are not a acting for it. “Machines may get bigger at ‘mimicking animal meaning’ and thereby bigger at admiration animal behavior,”52 but Tetlock argued there is a cogent aberration amidst artful acceptation and deciphering the meaning’s aboriginal intent. He concludes, “That’s a amplitude animal acumen will consistently occupy.”53 To that end we charge advance in the animal apperception in the anatomy of analytic training accumulated with predictive forecasting based on about attainable information. Targeted investments directed adjoin convalescent artistic cerebration and smartly leveraging attainable sources will ultimately abetment administration decisionmaking and accord the IC a able allusive advantage in the future.
About the author:*Lieutenant Colonel James M. Davitch, USAF, is the Intelligence Operations Division Chief at Air Force All-around Bang Command, Barksdale Air Force Base, Louisiana.
Source:This commodity was appear in the Joint Force Quarterly 87, which is appear by the Civic Aegis University.
Notes:1 I ambition to acknowledge Colonel Jeffrey Donnithorne, Dr. Jon Kimminau, Dr. Lisa Costa, Dr. Robert Norton, Mr. Josh Kerbel, Lieutenant Colonel Robert Folker, and Majors Kyle Bressette and Seth Gilpin for their anxious comments and suggestions. All errors activate herein are my own. See additionally Adam Lowther and John Farrell, “From the Air,” Air & Amplitude Power Journal 26, no. 4 (2012), 61–102.
2 Marcus Weisgerber, “Dempsey’s Final Instruction to the Pentagon: Prepare for a Long War,” Aegis One, July 1, 2015, attainable at <www.defenseone.com/management/2015/07/dempseys-final-instruction-pentagon-prepare-long-war/116761/>.
3 Gregory F. Treverton, Reshaping Civic Intelligence for an Age of Information, RAND Studies in Activity Assay (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003).
4 Josh Kerbel, “The U.S. Intelligence Community’s Creativity Challenge,” Civic Interest, October 13, 2014, attainable at <http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-us-intelligence-communitys-creativity-challenge-11451>.
5 Robert Baer, See No Evil: The Authentic Adventure of a Ground Soldier in the CIA’s War on Terrorism (New York: Crown, 2002); see additionally Bruno Tertrais, assay of The Dead Hand: The Untold Adventure of the Cold War Accoutrements Race and Its Alarming Legacy, by David E. Hoffman, Survival 52, no. 1 (2010), 220.
6 Treverton.
7 Anthony Olcott, Attainable Antecedent Intelligence in a Networked World (New York: Bloomsbury Intelligence Studies, 2012), chap. 6.
8 Ibid., chap. 4.
9 One botheration with this activity is that it after-effects in poor metrics for free intelligence, surveillance, and assay effectiveness. Civilian and aggressive accumulating managers accent their accumulating requirements, acquired from the Civic Intelligence Priorities Framework at the civic akin and command-driven intelligence requirements beneath that, based on the antecedence of the intelligence bare to abutment a accustomed mission. Quantitative measures such as the basal of missions tasked or the basal of images calm and candy are generally acclimated as proxy abstracts to appraise the adequacy of affair prioritized accumulating requirements. These abstracts are attainable to numerically accumulated and aggregate, but they abstract from investigating qualitative indicators that adeptness actuate whether the intelligence activity is accidental advisedly to analytic the basal intelligence problem. It additionally speaks to a abortion both to alarmingly assay problems and to devise artistic solutions. Lieutenant Colonel David Vernal, Air War College student, account by the author, November 15, 2015.
10 Graham T. Allison and Philip Zelikow, Aspect of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (New York: Longman, 1999).
11 Ronald D. Garst, “Fundamentals of Intelligence Analysis,” in Intelligence Analysis: ANA630, vol. 1 (Washington, DC: Joint Aggressive Intelligence College, 2000), 18–28.
12 The aberration amidst anecdotic assay anecdotic who, what, and area questions and predictive assay is that the closing does not calmly accommodate itself to statements of fact, thereby inducing greater cerebral stress. Acclamation predictive “what will happen” questions armament the analyst to acquire added accident by authoritative abstract judgments amidst uncertainty. Moreover, these advancing questions charge be answered with a ambit of possibilities, generally angry to appropriately abstract probabilities.
13 Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Apathetic (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2013).
14 Vernal, interview, November 15, 2015.
15 Kerbel.
16 Remarks by Central Intelligence Bureau Administrator Michael Hayden, Council on Adopted Relations, Washington, DC, September 7, 2007, attainable at <www.cia.gov/news-information/speeches-testimony/2007/general-haydens-remarks-at-the-council-on-foreign-relations.html>.
17 As Lieutenant Colonel Adam Stone articular in a 2016 Air War College study, the Air Force does not acquire the affluence of borer into a abundance of analytic cerebration (CT) capability. Pointing to the Air Force Approaching Operating Concept’s admiration for the identification of analytic thinkers and metrics to clue analytic cerebration skills, Stone accomplished a quantitative CT assay project. He activated a sample of able aggressive apprenticeship acceptance in abode at the Air Command & Staff College (ACSC), School for Advanced Air and Amplitude Studies, and Air War College (AWC). His (statistically significant) after-effects indicated, “AF admiral accessory ACSC and AWC were beneath boilerplate in CT abilities back compared with individuals at the aforementioned bookish level.” See Adam J. Stone, Analytic Cerebration Abilities of U.S. Air Force Chief and Intermediate Developmental Apprenticeship Acceptance (Maxwell Air Force Base, AL: Air War College, 2016).
18 Olcott, chap. 4.
19 Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (New York: Crown, 2015).
20 Kahneman.
21 Joseph Nye, acquainted the challenges adverse adopted activity analysts afterwards the Cold War, declared a abstruseness as an absorption that does not accommodate itself to quick answers or attainable analysis. See Joseph S. Nye, “Peering into the Future,” Adopted Affairs 73, no. 4 (1994), 82–93. Secrets, on the added hand, are added authentic problems that can be answered via espionage or abstruse means. They accommodate themselves to acceptable acutely absolute answers and anecdotic analysis. However, in the future, as added abstracts become about available, able appliance of human-machine accord activated adjoin the attainable antecedent advice ambiance may crop insights aforetime aloof to classified sensors alone.
22 This point was added accurate in an account the columnist conducted with Robert Norton of Auburn University. Dr. Norton declared the abeyant of ecology adopted weapon accomplishment through an antagonist country’s assay and development timeline. He acclaimed that adopted universities accent the charge to broadcast in abstruse journals as abundant as American college apprenticeship centers do. Advice apropos abstruse developments can generally be empiric boring architecture and again rapidly disappearing, conceivably appearance that a country has accomplished the adapted appearance of assay to activate transitioning a adequacy to the operational assay and appraisal phases.
23 Olcott, chap. 4.
24 Kahneman.
25 Ibid.
26 Josh Kerbel, “The U.S. Intelligence Association Wants Disruptive Change as Long as It’s Not Disruptive,” War on the Rocks, January 20, 2016, attainable at <http://warontherocks.com/2016/01/the-u-s-intelligence-community-wants-disruptive-change-as-long-as-its-not-disruptive/>.
27 Ibid.
28 Treverton, 9.
29 Ibid.
30 Matthew Harris, “Marketing with Instagram, the Fastest Growing Amusing Platform!” The Medium Well, February 19, 2016, attainable at <http://mediumwell.com/marketing-instagram/>.
31 Alec Ross, “Industries of the Future,” Carnegie Council podcast, March 10, 2016.
32 Treverton, 6.
33 Ralph S. Clem, “MH17 Three Years Later: What Acquire We Learned,” War on the Rocks, July 18, 2017, attainable at <https://warontherocks.com/2017/07/mh17-three-years-later-what-have-we-learned/>.
34 “What We Know So Far About the Passenger Jet Shot Bottomward in Ukraine,” Adopted Policy, July 17, 2014, attainable at <http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/07/17/what-we-know-so-far-about-the-passenger-jet-shot-down-in-ukraine/>.
35 Ibid.
36 Ibid.
37 Weisgerber.
38 Ibid.
39 Michael Kofman, “Russian Amalgam Warfare and Added Dark Arts,” War on the Rocks, March 11, 2016, attainable at <http://warontherocks.com/2016/03/russian-hybrid-warfare-and-other-dark-arts/>.
40 Michael Pillsbury, The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Abstruse Strategy to Replace America as the All-around Superpower (New York: Henry Holt, 2015).
41 This is abnormally authentic apropos award asymmetries adjoin a commonly stronger foe.
42 Steven Pifer, “Russian Assailment Adjoin Ukraine, and the West’s Activity Response,” affidavit afore the U.S. Senate Adopted Relations Committee, Washington, DC, March 4, 2015, attainable at <www.brookings.edu/testimonies/russian-aggression-against-ukraine-and-the-wests-policy-response-2/>.
43 “NATO Flexes Its Muscle Memory,” The Economist, August 30, 2014, attainable at <www.economist.com/news/international/21614166-russias-aggression-ukraine-has-made-natos-summit-wales-most-important>; Dan Gonzales and Sarah Harting, “Exposing Russia’s Covert Actions,” U.S. News & World Report, April 29, 2014.
44 “Rise of the Machines,” The Economist, May 9, 2015, 18–21.
45 Maryam M. Najafabadi et al., “Deep Learning Applications and Challenges in Big Abstracts Analytics,” Journal of Big Abstracts 2, no. 1 (2015), 1–21.
46 Kahneman.
47 Tetlock and Gardner.
48 David Ignatius, “More Chatter Than Needed,” Washington Post, November 1, 2013.
49 Ibid.
50 Angela Chen, “Seeing into the Future,” Account of College Education, October 5, 2015, attainable at <www.chronicle.com/article/Philip-Tetlock-s-Tomorrows/233507>.
51 Michael Flynn, Matthew Pottinger, and Paul Batchelor, “Fixing Intel in Afghanistan,” Marine Corps Gazette 94, no. 4 (2010), 62–67.
52 Tetlock and Gardner.
53 Ibid.
