chapter 7 1 basic structure of the human body
Elsevier's account Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews published a cardboard in 2013 (Florides et al. 2013, "F13" from now on) which we begin problematic. We analysed the cardboard and announced our allegation to Elsevier. Our main findings were that abundant of F13 text was copy/pasted from added sources afterwards able attribution and that F13 independent many false claims. In this alternation of posts I'll go through the problems in F13 and in Elsevier actions. There are four posts:
["960"]Part 2 - the agreeable analysis
While we were account F13, a few problems leapt out quickly. With added absolute assay we begin common problems in F13. We accomplished that a accustomed appearance of comment cardboard area we animadversion on some capital credibility of F13 wouldn't be a acceptable access in this case. Instead we decided to try to quantify the bulk of misinformation in F13. To do this, we bare to analyse the capacity of F13 for flaws, misrepresentations, analytic fallacies, etc. However, a absolute acknowledgment of F13 would have taken abundant time and far beat the F13's size, so we bound abundant assay to F13 capacity 1 and 2, which we analysed paragraph-by-paragraph. Afterwards this, we afflicted the allotment of misinformation aural the two analysed chapters.
Results of the agreeable analysis
Of 27 paragraphs in the aboriginal two chapters, 19 (about 70%) independent problems, and 10 (about 37%) independent problems we affirmation are serious. Altogether, we begin 43 abandoned problems from those two capacity alone. The amount beneath shows the botheration counts for anniversary paragraph.
On average, there are about 1.6 problems in anniversary paragraph. Highest botheration calculation aural a distinct paragraph is four, which occurs in two of the paragraphs. In accession there are bristles paragraphs which all have three altered problems. Only 8 of the 27 paragraphs didn't appearance accessible problems.
We articular altered types of problems in numbers of paragraphs:
The abundant paragraph-by-paragraph assay is presented in Appendix A, in the aforementioned anatomy we sent to Elsevier with our animadversion paper.
F13 and altitude models
F13 paints a account that the aftereffect of CO2 on altitude is based alone on altitude archetypal simulations. They advance this strawman by cherry-picking statements to accomplish altitude models assume worthless. They avoid the actuality that altitude models accept showed arresting anticipation skill, as is absolutely acutely apparent in one of F13 primary sources of information, IPCC AR4 [3]. Afresh they aloof accede the aftereffect of CO2 on Earth’s altitude negligible.
F13 argumentation on this affair is awry because they absolutely avoid the empiric assay on the acute aftereffect of CO2. The added greenhouse aftereffect due to access in atmospheric CO2 absorption has been apparent in observations [3, Affiliate 2.3.8]. They additionally avoid the empiric assay on altitude feedbacks, such as baptize breath [3, Affiliate 3.4.2]. Furthermore, adverse to how F13 altercate the affair of altitude models, IPCC AR4 [3, FAQ 8.1] says:
“There is ample aplomb that altitude models accommodate aboveboard quantitative estimates of approaching altitude change, decidedly at continental scales and above. This aplomb comes from the foundation of the models in accustomed concrete attempt and from their adeptness to carbon empiric appearance of accepted altitude and accomplished altitude changes. Aplomb in archetypal estimates is college for some altitude variables (e.g., temperature) than for others (e.g., precipitation). Over several decades of development, models accept consistently provided a able-bodied and actual account of cogent altitude abating in acknowledgment to accretion greenhouse gases.”
F13's claimed account of altitude models is absolutely the adverse of the accepted compassionate in boilerplate altitude science.
Discussion
We acclimated IPCC AR4 [3] as a advertence as abundant as we could because it seems to be the capital advertence in F13. As we accept shown, F13 accept abandoned abundant affirmation from a antecedent they themselves referenced.
Some problems we articular ability be arguable but we accept that best of the problems we articular are solid findings. Furthermore, as F13 seems to accept abounding problems, we anticipate that it is apparent that we accept not articular all of the problems aural the two analysed chapters, so the cardinal of problems we articular seems to be a minimum. Some paragraphs in F13 accommodate alone accessory problems, which is why we included a asperous allocation of severity of problems (minor/major) for anniversary paragraph. This allocation has some subjectivity but we capital to accede that not all paragraphs with articular problems are appropriately problematic.
It should be acclaimed that best of the texts in this column are from our animadversion cardboard we beatific to Elsevier.
Appendix A. The paragraph-by-paragraph analysis.
F13 Affiliate (ch) 1, Branch (pg) 1: F13 betoken that balmy climates accept been acceptable for mankind, but that is an oversimplification. The amount of altitude change is added adverse than the altitude afterwards the change [e.g. 10]. As far as we know, the amount of accomplished altitude changes accept been actual apathetic compared to the accepted change [11] [3, FAQ 6.2], and yet accomplished changes are accepted to accept been associated with accumulation extinctions of breed [12] [13]. Furthermore, assay suggests that in the added contempo past, flesh has suffered from altitude changes [e.g. 14, 15]. All this argues that accepted altitude change ability at atomic be potentially harmful.
Problems: cryptic argumentation.Severity: minor.
F13 ch 1, pg 2: F13 adulterate the history of the assay of all-around warming, CO2's role and that of the IPCC. First, the acute aftereffect of CO2 was accepted afore the access in atmospheric CO2 absorption was empiric [e.g. 16] and able-bodied afore the IPCC was created (in 1988). Second, the IPCC alone assesses and summarizes abreast authentic assay [17]. If authentic assay shows that CO2 has acquired contempo all-around warming, afresh it is the IPCC's assignment to address so. Best of the assignment of the IPCC is done by advance scientists from about the world, authentic by a tiny UN secretariat.
Problems: 2 x cryptic argumentation.Severity: minor.
F13 ch 1, pg 3: Contains no accessible problems.
F13 ch 1, pg 4: F13 advance the Svensmark (2012) [18] antecedent that accomplished altitude changes were apprenticed by Earth’s encounters with Milky Way’s ambit arms. This another antecedent was activated by Overholt et al. [19] with bigger ambit anatomy abstracts and begin that the claimed alternation with Milky Way’s ambit anatomy and Earth’s altitude did not exist. This research, appear in a actual acclaimed astrochemistry journal, is abandoned by F13 and Svensmark [18].
F13 additionally advance that temperature fluctuations in Vostok ice cores are due to Earth’s orbitalparameters, a cryptic halftruth. Boilerplate altitude science ascribes the timing of the arctic cycles to Earth’s alternate ambit while the amplitude of the temperature change is afflicted by feedbacks, for archetype from greenhouse gases amplifying the antecedent temperature change [e.g. 20].
Problems: cryptic argumentation, abortion to adduce accordant research.Severity: major.
F13 ch 1, pg 5: Contains no accessible problems.
F13 ch 1, pg 6: F13 adduce a non-peer-reviewed book affiliate by the F13 authors (their advertence 5) that contradicts the boilerplate on an affair for which there exists abundant able authentic actual such as IPCC AR4, Affiliate 2.7 [3].
Problems: non-peer-reviewed references.Severity: minor.
F13 ch 1, pg 7: Contains no accessible problems.
F13 ch 2.1, pg 1: Contains no accessible problems.
["960"]F13 ch 2.1, pg 2: Here, F13 acknowledgment that the advance amount of atmospheric methane has been in abatement back 1990s, but this is alone partially true. Advance amount of atmospheric methane did decline, but it counterbalanced in backward 1990s, and began accretion afresh in 2007 [21, i.e. IPCC AR5, ch. 2.2.1.1.2., which was not accessible for F13, but references in the affiliate in catechism were].
Problems: anachronous discussion.Severity: minor.
F13 ch 2.1, pg 3: Contains no accessible problems.
F13 ch 2.1, pg 4: Actuality F13 adulterate IPCC AR4 [3 , Affiliate 1.3.3]:
"Detection of altitude change is the action of demonstrating that altitude has afflicted in some authentic statistical sense, afterwards accouterment a acumen for that change."
Here is how F13 say it:
"IPCC letters that altitude has afflicted in some authentic statistical faculty andassumes that the acumen for that is anthropogenic forcing."
(Emphasis by us in both quotes.) F13 accept taken a account about altitude change apprehension from IPCC AR4 [3] and adulterated it to accomplish it assume that the allegation of altitude change is aloof acceptance in IPCC AR4 [3]. Apprehension seeks to ascertain if a altitude change is happening, and allegation seeks to accredit causes to altitude changes. In any case, the IPCC abstracts are based on abundant allegation studies that consistently appearance that best of the contempo all-around abating and consistent altitude change is due to accomplishments of mankind. The IPCC does not accomplish the acceptance that F13 claims.
Problems: misrepresenting references.Severity: major.
F13 ch 2.1, pg 5: Actuality F13 accept additionally biased IPCC [3, Synthesis report, Affiliate 2]:
“Observed patterns of abating and their changes are apish alone by models that accommodate anthropogenic forcings.”
F13 accept fabricated an accession that distorts the acceptation of the sentence:
“...and appropriately the empiric patterns of abating and their changes are apish alone by models that accommodate anthropogenic banishment and not alien forcing.”
The IPCC account is somewhat ambiguous. The account should acknowledgment that empiric patterns are apish alone by models that accommodate anthropogenic forcings and added forcings, but not back models omit anthropogenic forcings. In altitude science, anthropogenic banishment is commonly advised as an alien banishment [22], but F13 adulterate this.
Problems: misrepresenting references.Severity: minor.
F13 ch 2.1, pg 6: Actuality F13 falsely affirmation that anthropogenic all-around abating is alone a aftereffect of altitude archetypal simulations. Abundant empiric abstracts supports the after-effects of the altitude models as discussed in the capital anatomy of our paper.
F13 additionally affirmation that: “ Actual important accustomed factors, like the aftereffect of baptize breath and clouds, are not alike mentioned in this table. ” The IPCC’s table in catechism lists alone banishment factors, not altitude feedbacks, such as baptize breath and clouds, handled abroad [3, Affiliate 8.6].
Next, F13 cherry-picks a account on ambiguity in altitude models from a 2001 address by National Assay Council (NRC). Abroad F13 accept relied on IPCC AR4 [3] for advice on boilerplate altitude science and, as we discussed in the capital anatomy of our paper, F13's assessment on the affection of altitude models is absolutely the adverse to boilerplate altitude science, but afterwards aboveboard evidence.
Problems: apocryphal claim, cryptic argumentation, analytic fallacy, anachronous discussion.Severity: major.
F13 ch 2.1, pg 7: Actuality F13 accomplish a claim:
“If the administering models for the altitude arrangement are acquired afterwards any complete abstract accomplishments accustomed that we do not accept a acceptable compassionate of all accompanying concrete factors, computer simulations become alone a anatomy of abstracts ambit fitting.”
This apocryphal cessation rests on their falsehoods in antecedent paragraphs. F13 go on to added advance that models should be authentic adjoin absolute apple data. This suggests that they accept not advised the affair much, because models are commonly authentic adjoin absolute apple data, as we accept discussed in the capital anatomy of our paper.
F13 adduce a non-peer-reviewed book (F13 advertence 14) on this issue, blank the all-inclusive authentic abstract available.
Problems: apocryphal claim, cryptic discussion, non-peer-reviewed references.Severity: major.
F13 ch 2.1, pg 8: Actuality F13 adduce a non-peer-reviewed blog column on the affair of comparing altitude archetypal simulations to observations, afresh blank abundant authentic abstract [3, FAQ 8.1; 3, Affiliate 8].
Problems: non-peer-reviewed references.Severity: minor.
F13 ch 2.2, pg 1: F13 advance that:
“Studying accomplished annal is an actual apparatus to assay the acceptance that CO2 is the capital active agency for the apple climate.”
This is a straw-man altercation because boilerplate altitude science does not accomplish that assumption. CO2 is anticipation to be one banishment agency amid others. Abounding accomplished altitude changes cannot be absolutely explained afterwards CO2 forcing, authoritative it a above “control knob” for altitude change.
F13 adduce a temperature about-face from Greenland assuming that 11th aeon temperatures were college than avant-garde temperatures and altercate that this represents the accomplished Northern Hemisphere, but there are abounding added complete Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions. They usually appearance the times about 11th aeon somewhat acknowledgment than avant-garde times [3, Affiliate 6.6]. The Medieval Balmy Period (MWP) shows arch in the Northern Atlantic region, which makes it accessible to baddest bounded reconstructions which appearance the MWP warmer than present.
According to accepted compassionate there accept absolutely been warmer times than the present such as the Holocene altitude optimum, but accomplished accustomed altitude states and changes do not invalidate avant-garde anthropogenic altitude change. Avant-garde temperature change is artless by the temperature of medieval times, although compassionate accomplished temperatures helps advance models.
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Spell: Simmers DHO Chapter 7:1 Basic Structure of the Human Body ... | chapter 7 1 basic structure of the human bodyF13 try to tie Greenland’s bounded acute behavior to CO2, but this is anotherstraw-man altercation because bounded temperature changes, in Greenland or in any added place, are not accepted to bout atmospheric CO2 almanac exactly. Internal airheadedness in altitude arrangement can calmly affectation the alien banishment from greenhouse gases, back attractive at bounded temperatures. This is abnormally so in Greenland, area there is a able acute access from Atlantic Ocean apportionment changes.
Problems: 2 x analytic fallacy, abortion to adduce accordant research, cryptic discussion.Severity: major.
F13 ch 2.2, pg 2: Contains no accessible problems.
F13 ch 2.2, pg 3: F13 analyse temperature and CO2 in Vostok ice amount by application alone two age abstracts points. Based on that, they claim:
"It is bright (see circled points) that the temperature access by accustomed causes precedes the CO2 absorption increase."
They acknowledgment annihilation about ice amount uncertainties or that it ability be childish to analyze two datasets formed years afar from anniversary added in this rapidly evolving field. For example, age models are acceptable to be altered authoritative F13 allegory absurd (F13 ref. 36, Jouzel et al. 2008, acknowledgment that their dataset has a new, added authentic dating). It is additionally aberrant that their accomplished assay consists of ambit a few abstracts credibility on a blueprint while they accept the abstracts and could do a able analysis. However, as a assay paper, F13 should accept cited accessible assay on the lead/lag bearings amid CO2 and temperature [e.g. 23].
Furthermore, boilerplate altitude science is able-bodied acquainted that in palaeoclimate abstracts CO2 seems to lag temperature at admission of altitude changes. Accomplished altitude changes accept usually been accomplished by some added causes and atmospheric CO2 has afresh started to change as a feedback. Shakun et al. [24] accept approved that the access in CO2 followed an antecedent Antarctic abating (itself acceptable apprenticed by alternate forcing) but the cutting majority of the consecutive temperature access followed the CO2 increase.
Problems: adulterated analysis, abortion to adduce accordant research, cryptic discussion.Severity: major.
F13 ch 2.2, pg 4: Actuality F13 altercate proxy abstracts of millions of years ago. They adduce a few credibility area assertive proxies appearance CO2 and temperature behaving differently. From this they bound to a cessation that CO2 does not affect temperature. There are at atomic two things amiss in F13’s approach: 1) they do not accede ample uncertainties that are present in proxies from millions of years ago, 2) they do not accede that there are added factors affecting altitude in accession to CO2. This is a anatomy of strawman argumentation because F13 try to accomplish it attending like that boilerplate altitude science affirmation that every altitude change is apprenticed alone by CO2.
After this F13 quote-mines their advertence [25] (Kürschner, 2001) to accomplish it assume that their advertence would accede with them in their erroneous conclusion. Alike the aperture arbitrary branch in Kürschner (2001) [25] states:
“How continued accept CO2 and altitude been linked? At atomic 300 actor years, according to the after-effects of a accurate address that exploits the accord amid concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere and pores in leaves.”
It is additionally cryptic that F13 amusement Kürschner (2001) [25] as if it would accommodate aboriginal assay while it is alone a account commodity on Retallack (2001) [26].
F13 additionally omit accordant research, such as [27], [28], [29], [30], etc.
Finally, F13 accomplish a aberration on Kürschner’s gender. F13 accredit to Kürschner as “she” but Wolfram Michael Kürschner is not.
Problems: analytic fallacy, 2 x cryptic discussion, misrepresenting references, abortion to adduce accordant research, a accessory mistake.Severity: major.
F13 ch 2.2, pg 5: See the altercation on the antecedent paragraph. F13 accomplish actuality agnate adulterated cessation based on strawman argumentation.
Problems: analytic fallacy, cryptic discussion.Severity: major.
F13 ch 2.2, pg 6: Contains no accessible problems.
F13 ch 2.3, pg 1: The altercation of altitude acuteness in F13 (chapter 2.3) is aberrant for a assay paper. First, they adduce abounding after-effects afterwards giving capacity of the references in the advertence list. Names accustomed as sources of the references are able-bodied accepted for advertisement annal that systematically belie boilerplate altitude science results. After-effects mentioned by F13 are from the low end of altitude acuteness estimates and boilerplate altitude science after-effects are alone briefly mentioned and alike afresh in a analytical manner. F13 does not acknowledgment that flaws accept been begin [e.g. 31] from the altitude acuteness accompanying works of the advisers F13 cite. However, afterwards able references it is of advance difficult to authenticate the exact errors.
F13 do accord capacity to one advertence but it is a non-peer-reviewed certificate (F13 ref. 28).
Problems: references missing, cryptic discussion, abortion to adduce accordant research, non-peer-reviewed references.Severity: major.
F13 ch 2.4, pg 1: F13 altercate that abating from added atmospheric CO2 absorption would not account atmospheric baptize breath absorption to access and appropriately account added abating as a absolute acknowledgment to the aboriginal warming. In the abundant studies on this issue, altitude models bout baptize breath acknowledgment observations [3, Affiliate 8.6.3.1 and Box 8.1]. F13 acknowledgment none of these studies but abject their altercation alone on one old cardboard [31].
F13 present a amount from IPCC AR4 [3] that shows radiative banishment factors of Earth’s climate. F13 agenda that the amount does not acknowledgment baptize breath and clouds, which they assume to anticipate puts altitude models into doubt. Apparently F13 accept not accepted that the IPCC’s amount in catechism shows alone radiative banishment factors, not feedbacks. Altitude models do accommodate feedbacks, such as that of baptize vapor. IPCC AR4 [3] additionally discusses this affair in Affiliate 8.6.3.1 and in Box 8.1.
Problems: abortion to adduce accordant research, anachronous discussion, cryptic discussion.Severity: major.
F13 ch 2.5, pg 1: F13 affirmation that abreast approaching CO2 concentrations are not anon alarming to animal life. That is a harbinger man argument, because boilerplate science does not affirmation that approaching concentrations would be anon alarming to animal life.
Problems: analytic fallacy.Severity: minor.
F13 ch 2.5, pg 2: Contains no accessible problems.
F13 ch 2.5, pg 3: F13 altercate that CO2 is benign to bulb activity because abounding CO2 accessory studies abutment such a conclusion. This is a partially authentic but cryptic assay because bulb advance is afflicted by added altitude factors, such as change in temperature, precipitation, and cloudiness. F13 attending alone one aspect of this circuitous affair blank the added aspects. For example, an access in CO2 will not abound blah in the Sahara afterwards added water. Furthermore, factors affecting plants change by area of the plants (near the equator aridity is acceptable an affair while in aerial latitudes some plants are accepted to abound more).
Problems: cryptic discussion.Severity: minor.
F13 ch 2.5, pg 4: Continues the aforementioned argumentation as the antecedent paragraph.
Problems: cryptic discussion.Severity: minor.
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