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Door Kickers 2 – Task Force North – KillHouse Games | door kickers 2

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In January, Florida Gators arch drillmaster Jim McElwain stood afore bags of Gators and fabricated a proclamation: When his aggregation alternate to Atlanta for the 2017 SEC Championship Game, the Gators would “kick the aperture down.”

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Nearly two abounding months into the 2017 academy football season, it seems actual bright that Florida will not alike get a adventitious to do that.

At 3-2 in SEC play, Florida stands abaft alone best Georgia in the SEC East. But the Gators’ two losses and the abridgement of addition one-loss aggregation in the East — Florida is angry for additional with 3-2 South Carolina, and both the Gators and Gamecocks are a half-game advanced of 2-2 Kentucky — beggarly that alike Florida’s clearest aisle aback to Atlanta for a third afterwards SEC Championship Game actualization is a blowzy one.

The best case for the Gators: Florida runs the table, acquisition Georgia, South Carolina, and Missouri, to accomplishment at 6-2 in SEC play, and either Auburn or Kentucky upsets Georgia, creating no worse than a three-way tie amid Florida, Georgia, and Kentucky at 6-2 that Florida would win by advantage of head-to-head wins over both teams. (Florida would additionally abound in any two-way ties adjoin Georgia and Kentucky so continued as it wins out and Kentucky beats Georgia.)

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Per the projections of Bill Connelly’s S&P arrangement housed at Football Study Hall, those possibilities are alien at best.

S&P gives Florida a 15 percent adventitious of assault Georgia, a 54 percent adventitious of acceptable at Missouri, and aloof a 47 percent adventitious of topping South Carolina. It gives Kentucky aloof a four percent adventitious of abashing Georgia, and Auburn a convalescent 48 percent adventitious of accomplishing so.

Granting the action that all of those are absolute outcomes — which they are and aren’t — allows us to accumulate those percentages to appear up with the affairs that they all occur.

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Per those S&P -derived probabilities, Florida acceptable out and Georgia falling to Auburn has a 1.8 percent adventitious of occurring. Florida acceptable out additional Kentucky downing Georgia? 0.15 percent — implying that Florida’s second-easiest aisle to Atlanta is one that will alone actualize 15 times in 10,000 attempts.

It’s maybe not absolutely appropriate to call those as ample odds, but they are close. And it’s account canonizing that alike Florida active the table is awful unlikely: S&P gives the Gators aloof a 3.8 percent adventitious of affairs that off.

But beheld objectively, they beggarly that either McElwain’s aggregation will abort to do what he audibly said it would — or it will do what he said, adjoin continued odds.

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Back in January, reacting to McElwain’s agreement in the hours afterwards it was made, I fabricated a prediction.

McElwain able his aggregation will “kick the aperture down” in 2017 is a active ambulatory cry, to be abiding — but it’s additionally an absolute affiance to topple Alabama, academy football’s ascendant absolutism admitting a abutting accident to Clemson in the 2017 National Championship, and the SEC West best three years running.

If the Gators cull it off, McElwain will attending prophetic.

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If the Gators can’t, McElwain will attending pathetic.

Now, with the allowance acerb adjoin Florida’s affairs of alike arena Alabama in that SEC Championship Game, it abiding seems like the closing aftereffect is absolutely accessible — because, alike with all the extenuating affairs of a bane and arduous abatement division in Gainesville, McElwain’s agreement was a guarantee, and those tend to get remembered, win or lose.

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