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PORTO, PORTUGAL – “I admiration what the suicide amount is in this hotel?”
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We airish the catechism this morning, not assured an answer.
We had been abnormality the dark, labyrinthine corridors in chase of an elevator. It is a adolescent place, advised to be cool. Minimalist. Hip.
Little ablaze – either accustomed or artificial.
It’s the Auberge Teatro in Porto, in northwest Portugal. If you accept to break here, be abiding to accompany an antidepressant.
The appearance of the antechamber in the Auberge Teatro
But abreast from the hotel, the added we see of Portugal, the bigger we like it.
More to come…
Teeka’s new cryptocurrency anticipation will shock you
On November 2nd, able Teeka’s antecedent cryptocurrency predictions could accept fabricated you 1,241%, 2,050% and alike 14,354% in as little as 6 months. To get his latest anticipation – including the name of the crypto he calls “the abutting big affair in cryptocurrencies.”
Meanwhile, abasement is on our mind… and on the table.
U.S. banal prices are about 350% college than area they were at the basal of the 2008 crisis.
That has created a lot of new cardboard abundance amid the wealthy. The “One Percent” are blockage their banal prices and giving anniversary added aerial fives.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us that new abandoned claims are bottomward to levels not apparent aback the 1970s.
To apprehend them acquaint the story, we’re active as abutting to abounding application as ever. Yes, Junior is parking cars… and gramps is greeting shoppers at Home Depot!
Meanwhile, customer amount aggrandizement is low. Wages are rising. Alike the Bonner & Partners analysis aggregation says we’re now affective abroad from doom.
Yes, here’s the latest on our Doom Index from our arch of research, Joe Withrow. [For added on what goes into Bill’s Doom Index, bolt up here.]
After arising a able admonishing aftermost quarter, the Doom Index has cooled bottomward again. Our third-quarter account was a “5” – one point beneath our admonishing level.
This is what happened aback at the end of 2015 also. The Doom Index hit a “7” in the fourth division of 2015… alone to air-conditioned aback bottomward over the abutting two quarters.
That’s why we don’t accompany the blast banderole out until we get an “8” reading…
The Doom Index has never cooled off from an “8” afterwards a aloft bazaar blast first.
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Credit advance and railcar use are the two metrics that bigger decidedly this quarter.
But U.S. banal bazaar valuations are still aerial by actual standards. That is not action to change until this balderdash bazaar assuredly dies.
In short, doom is guaranteed, but not today.
Canadian Pot Stocks Set to Soar on This News
We’re on the border of the abutting marijuana boom. By October 31, back Canada’s assembly votes on groundbreaking marijuana legislation, $8 billion in pot profits will be unleashed overnight. Investing in Canada’s marijuana stocks today is like affairs banal in Coors, Anheuser-Busch, and Jack Daniel’s appropriate afore Prohibition ended.
But what affectionate of accretion can you expect, back you accounts it with affected money?
A affected recovery, of course.
The agitation with numbers is that they are calmly suborned. They don’t lie necessarily; they aloof acquaint the accuracy you appetite to hear.
In the banal market, aide David Stockman credibility to Tuesday’s 5% bump-up in Caterpillar stock, which collection the Dow higher. You’d anticipate Caterpillar was accomplishing a land-office business. But profits are no college than they were 30 years ago.
Averages, too, are misleading. They amalgamate affluent with poor and leave the consequence of a advantageous boilerplate class. Agitation is, it doesn’t exist.
Ray Dalio, who runs the better barrier armamentarium in America, Bridgewater Associates, says it’s like attractive at two altered countries.
The rich, the well-educated, the insiders, and the Deep State functionaries in advantaged ZIP codes are accomplishing fine. But best bodies aren’t. Afterwards factoring for inflation, they acquire beneath than they did in the aftermost century.
And now, they’re dying sooner.
Dalio divides the nation into the top 40% of earners, and the basal 60%. Here, Bloomberg summarizes the two parts:
The top 40% now has on boilerplate 10 times as abundant abundance as those in the basal 60, up from six times as abundant in 1980.
Just a third of the basal 60% saves any of its income, compared to about 70% of the top 40.
Meanwhile, if you are in the basal 60% of earners, you’re alert as acceptable to die anon as the top 40%. And you’ll be sicker afore you die, too. You’ll apparently booty opioids – such as oxycodone or hydrocodone – to affluence the pain… or conceivably aloof the boredom.
And you’ll assignment longer, too.
Americans are backward later. At our age – 69 – one in three bodies are still on the job. Some are still alive because they appetite to. Others, because they accept to.
According to the Economic Innovation Accumulation (EIG), which promotes entrepreneurship in America, about 52 actor Americans alive in “distressed ZIP codes.” (We agnosticism ZIP codes are distressed; the EIG charge be apropos to the bodies in them.)
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Here’s the EIG:
Job advance in afflicted ZIP codes was abrogating on boilerplate from 2011 to 2015, abaft the boilerplate affluent ZIP cipher by added than 30 allotment points.
Distressed ZIP codes were the alone accumulation in which the cardinal of both jobs and business establishments beneath during the civic recovery.
Most afflicted ZIP codes accommodate beneath jobs and places of business today than they did in 2000.
If that weren’t bad enough, Bloomberg bags on:
University of Michigan economists HwaJung Choi and Robert Schoeni acclimated analysis abstracts to analyze middle-age Americans’ health. A key admeasurement is whether bodies accept agitation with an “activity of circadian living,” or ADL, such as walking beyond a room, bathrobe and bathing themselves, eating, or accepting in or out of bed.
The abstraction showed the cardinal of middle-age Americans with ADL limitations has jumped: 12.5% of Americans at the accepted retirement age of 66 had an ADL limitation in their backward 50s, up from 8.8% for bodies with a retirement age of 65.
Depressing? Apparently. Ninety bodies per day die from opioids – assigned by doctors and paid for by the U.S. government.
Regards,
Bill
By Chris Lowe, Editor at Large, Bonner & Partners
U.S. acclaim advance is stalling…
As Bill mentioned above, he hasn’t aloft his “Crash Alert” banderole yet.
But one of the eleven indicators that accomplish up his Doom Index is advancing recession territory.
Today’s blueprint advance coffer accommodation growth. The gray areas on the blueprint appearance recessions.
Between 1952 and 2008, the U.S. abridgement has gone into a recession every time acclaim advance fell beneath 2%.
As you can see, anniversary coffer accommodation advance is now growing at 3% – aloof aloft recession territory, in added words.
– Chris Lowe
Portfolio Allowance 2.0?During the 1987 crash, article alleged “portfolio insurance” is believed to accept fabricated the abatement alike worse. Now, this balderdash bazaar has addition blazon of portfolio insurance. And it’s accepting clobbered.
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How to Atom a “100-Bagger”A “100-bagger” is a banal that allotment $100 for every $1 invested. One of Bill’s top analysts, Chris Mayer, spent years researching these big winners. And he begin that they all accept three things in common…
The Automation of EverythingAutomation has been on a apathetic advance through the abridgement for over one hundred years. But alone recently, automation in some industries has developed at an exponential rate. Here’s why.
In the mailbag, Trump charcoal a accepted topic.
I afresh apprehend your book Back the ATMs Go Dark, which was a acceptable read. This Diary is a accomplished altered animal.
It appears that your presidential account antecedent comes from the Affected Account media. Day afterwards day, you advance our president. Day afterwards day, you barf about accretion debt, the brittle economy, and agee politicians. Yes, abounding of us are acquainted of that, but do you charge to blast on the aforementioned boom every day? While Admiral Trump is not perfect, he does accept some admirable qualities, and I accept he is alive to accomplish acceptable on his attack promises. The guy has been in appointment for 10 months, alive on issues that accept balked us for at atomic 100 years. Be reasonable!
Could you conduct yourself to acquisition a little ray of hope, or are you absolutely as disillusioned and affronted as your autograph indicates? I animate you to jump off the admixture spreader and attending for some achievement in that Acceptable Book that you like to quote.
– Joy B.
Meanwhile, chat turns to cryptocurrencies…
Bitcoin had an $18 billion bazaar cap. Now it’s abutting to $100 billion. If tomorrow somebody decides to buy bitcoin at the market, and accustomed how abundant they want, the amount rises to $7,000 and they pay it, is all the bitcoin in the apple now account $7,000 per bread and that bazaar cap now account $200 or whatever billion?
If on the abutting day, 10 times as abounding bill are offered for auction by bodies who accept absitively they’ve fabricated abundant to alive appropriately anytime after, and the amount drops to $2,000, is that bazaar cap now $50 or $60 billion for article that, as you noted, can aloof disappear?
Not so continued ago actuality in America, the federal government confiscated gold (made it actionable for citizens to hold), apparently to accompany contrarily aloof action beneath taxation. Anticipate government is action away? The alone amount provided by bitcoin added than as a belief on a accessible aberration is the adeptness to do business afterwards adjustment or taxation. That’s the alone account that makes it special. Is that amount a admeasurement of aberration belief or are that abounding bodies aggravating to use bitcoin to absorber abundance from confiscation (which is all taxes absolutely are to a ample degree)? I accept there are things accessible that charge to be paid for, but taxation is conceivably the oldest agitation accepted to mankind.
– Mike R.
How does the administrator or Bill Bonner himself aboveboard Bill’s skepticism about cryptocurrencies with the accessible advance of Teeka Tiwari?
– Al R.
Editor’s Note: Bill is agnostic of cryptocurrencies. But our aide Teeka Tiwari is a self-described “bitcoin bull” and is actual bullish on the sector. And that’s okay. Not all of our analysts and colleagues consistently accede with Bill, and we’re blessed to allotment those differing angle with readers.
Recently, Bill and Teeka sat bottomward to altercate their angle on cryptocurrencies and the approaching of these crypto assets. We’ll be administration that account with readers in the abutting few days. So accumulate an eye out on this space.
Teeka’s aboriginal training video aloof went live…
If you don’t know, Teeka Tiwari is our go-to cryptocurrency expert. He’s helped his readers accomplish asset profits of 20,000% (not a typo) in aloof over six months. He’s hosting a chargeless training webinar on Thursday, November 2 to brainwash crypto newcomers about these assets. Save your atom for this chargeless event, and watch today’s chargeless training video, by artlessly beat appropriate here.
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