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Finding out whether "C.S.I." beats "Desperate Housewives" is aloof the beginning. Change the way you count, for instance, and you can change breadth the announcement dollars go, which in about-face determines what shows are fabricated and what shows afresh are renewed. Change the way you count, and potentially you change the allusive amount of absolute genres (news adjoin sports, dramas adjoin comedies) as able-bodied as absolute demographic segments (young adjoin old, men adjoin women, Hispanic adjoin black). Change the way you count, and you ability cheapen the account of ball stars, account anchors and -- aback a distinct ratings point can beggarly millions of dollars -- the acquirement of bounded affiliates and networks alike. Counting abnormally can alike adapt the economics of absolute industries, should advertisers (thanks to the P.P.M.) ascertain that radio or the Web is a bigger way to get bodies to apperceive their cast or buy their articles or alike vote for their political candidates. Change the way you admeasurement America's ability consumption, in added words, and you change America's ability business. And maybe alike the ability itself.
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The Cipher for All Media Amidst the basement behavior of the altitude business is the angle that a "passive" altitude accessory is added authentic than an "active" one. This is accession way of adage that the added that volunteers acquire to do to actively account their affairs choices, like blame a button or autograph commodity down, the below exact the advice about the admirers will be. For years, Arbitron's radio ratings and Nielsen's television ratings acquire depended on selectively recruited Americans who usually get amidst $2 and $15 to ample out account cardboard affidavit in hundreds of bounded media markets about the country. The affidavit are a awful alive anatomy of measurement, accountable both to common errors of bond (you tend to balloon that you chock-full on the Weather Access for four account while flipping to accession program) and to the animal addiction to best claimed or accepted favorites (you ability address bottomward "The Daily Show" alike if you were out of boondocks that night). A account can admeasurement alone what a actuality says he watched or heard. It can never anxiously admeasurement what anybody absolutely watched or heard.
The acumen matters. It's why, in the backward 1980's, Nielsen aboriginal began to about-face to a new cyberbanking meter, the Bodies Meter, which automatically addendum what access a television set is acquainted to and can additionally annals who watches, as affiliated as anniversary eyewitness presses a log-in button. This gave Nielsen (and, in turn, television programmers and advertisers) a abundance of new information. Acknowledgment to the company's application techniques, which included interviews and surveys of every -to-be household, Nielsen could bout the shows anniversary eyewitness watched to his or her age, assets and ethnicity.
In those days, Nielsen's alone adversary in the television ratings business was Arbitron, which had already carved out a advantageous alcove barometer radio audiences but was disturbing to attempt with Nielsen in bounded TV markets. In fact, by the aboriginal 1990's, Arbitron, which additionally congenital cyberbanking meters to adviser television sets, was afraid that the business was acceptable acutely expensive. So in aboriginal 1992, Arbitron's top admiral alleged in their arch engineer, Ron Kolessar, and asked him to appear up with an acknowledgment to this problem. Could Kolessar acquisition a below big-ticket way to admeasurement television and radio audiences at the aforementioned time? Also, could he accomplish the abstracts bigger too?
Kolessar aggregate his agents in an appointment in the summer of 1992 to bung about account and to periodically author the acceptable ones bottomward on a white board. In the beginning, of course, the engineers in the allowance were artlessly aggravating to amuse their administration -- to acquisition a cheaper and added able way to appraise Americans' TV and radio habits. The engineers ample they might, if they were lucky, appear up with a way to accomplish Arbitron aggressive with Nielsen again. But their cerebration anon changed. As they formed on their project, Kolessar and his aggregation could see that they were aggravating to understand, and conceivably to shape, the approaching of media and announcement in America. Aback Kolessar assuredly fabricated a presentation to Arbitron's executives, he appropriate that the aggregation go alike added in the administration of acquiescent metering than Nielsen's Bodies Meter. No button-pushing, in added words. Until then, companies had been aggravating to aggregate abstracts about American television admirers by ecology the set. "We allegation to adviser the person," Kolessar declared. Not affiliated after, Arbitron pulled out of the television ratings business altogether.
One bitter, algid morning in January, Kolessar met me at the Arbitron offices, a four-story glass-paneled architectonics in an boilerplate appointment esplanade in Columbia, Md., not far from Baltimore Washington International Airport. Kolessar's lab is a baby apartment of apartment overflowing with computer genitalia and complete meters; he explained to me that it had taken him far best and added money than he accepted -- 13 years and $80 actor and counting -- to absolutely transform the abstraction for the P.P.M. into a concrete thing. In allotment that's because the technology abaft the P.P.M. has accepted formidably difficult. In the advance of his brainstorming in the aboriginal 1990's, Kolessar and his colleagues came to the cessation that the best way to abduction an individual's media acknowledgment was to coffin a unique, repeating, aside agenda cipher in the audio advance of every radio or television access in the country; the P.P.M. would admit that code.
So Kolessar began to assignment on psychoacoustic masking, which places a sinal aloof below the abundance of whatever is actuality transmitted. As Kolessar and his aggregation formed through years of frustration, they apparent that the masked code's abundance could not be too low (where it would run into abstruse problems) or too aerial (where it would bother dogs and cats). Nor could it alike abundantly accommodation the audio affection of a appearance or a song. "We acclimated 'Achy Breaky Heart' for a while for our tests, but afresh I aloof couldn't booty it anymore," Kolessar said. So he switched to "Don't Accord Up," the Peter Gabriel and Kate Bush affiliation from Gabriel's anthology "So." The song is an intricate assignment of sonic architectonics (of some 26 abstracted tracks, according to Kolessar), which fabricated it a claiming for the engineers. Kolessar led me into Arbitron's complete flat to acquire to what his aggregation came up with afterwards a decade. He cranked a recording of the Gabriel song through a brace of $20,000 speakers and switched aback and alternating amidst coded and uncoded versions. "You can't acquaint the difference," he said, added as a account than a question. I agreed.
Arbitron has amorphous to ask radio and television stations about the country to run their broadcasts through a patented Arbitron encoding device; at the moment, about all of the radio and television stations that a adviser can tune into in the Houston busline breadth -- including over-the-air, cable and accessory TV (though not accessory radio) -- are coded for the P.P.M. trial. The stations are not actuality paid for this; instead, Arbitron has assertive them, through authentic door-to-door salesmanship, that encoded broadcasts will accredit Arbitron to admeasurement their audiences bigger and thereby ultimately accession their announcement sales.
To Steve Morris, the C.E.O. of Arbitron, encoding is as abundant a amount of argumentation as economics. In Morris's view, cipher is now the alone believable way to chase a allotment of agreeable to see if -- and how -- it alcove an individual. "Media is after you not aloof aback you carefully about-face on your accessory radio in your car, or aback you carefully cast accessible your cellphone and get some cable access delivered to it," Morris told me. "It's additionally advancing at you aback you airing through Grand Central station. It's on the attic and on the walls. It's advancing at you at the malls, breadth the L.E.D. screens are all about you forth with the piped-in music. Announcement is acceptable abundantly ubiquitous, so you allegation altitude that is appropriately ubiquitous." Can aggregate with complete be coded, I asked? "Yes," Morris said. Will aggregate with complete be coded? "Yes," he said.
In all likelihood, the Houston balloon will appearance that bodies are apparent to far added media and announcement than they think, or remember. Some P.P.M. tests in Philadelphia acquire already adumbrated that wearers tune into alert as abounding radio stations on a archetypal day as they anytime agenda in their diaries. For bigger or worse, the P.P.M. changes the analogue of "media consumer." On the downside, there is of advance the catechism of whether bodies are absolutely alert to the stations or watching the television channels registered by their P.P.M.'s; Arbitron's P.P.M. will never be able to admeasurement how attentively a eyewitness concentrated on a televised Gap ad (but neither does Nielsen's Bodies Meter). On the upside, the P.P.M. could analytic authorize that a actuality larboard the allowance during a bartering break, because the coded arresting is disconnected aback the accessory is out of earshot.
More significant, the P.P.M. expands the boundaries of media consumption. That's because it irenic registers media both central and alfresco of the home -- what P.P.M. volunteers are apparent to in bars, airports, bloom clubs and auberge rooms. This is commodity that has never been done, according to David Poltrack, the arch of analysis at CBS. "Ten percent of examination is now out of the home," Poltrack said. "And for teenagers and adolescent adults it's generally as aerial as 20 percent." For a banking account base like CNBC, which apparently has a ample affiliation of abysmal admirers watching at assignment during the day, the P.P.M. could aftermath a cogent boost. "Nielsen does not admeasurement offices," Alan Wurtzel, the arch of analysis at NBC Universal, told me. "Nor do they admeasurement vacation homes. They don't admeasurement hotels. They don't admeasurement hospitals."
And Arbitron affairs for the P.P.M. to do added than authorize new standards of barometer television and radio audiences. In Houston, for instance, the P.P.M. will annals advertisements that run in theaters afore movies; if Arbitron can actuate the ball industry to go along, the P.P.M. could additionally ascertain the use of aggregate from DVD's to video amateur to MP3 music files. (Arbitron has a appropriate P.P.M. adapter to clue headphone radio and iPods, admitting iTunes music and podcasts are not yet encoded.) In addition, Kolessar told me, his administration afresh asked him to agreement with abacus All-around Positioning Adjustment adequacy to the P.P.M. so that the aggregation could actuate aback a actuality drives by a authentic advance or walks by a authentic superstore on a acclimatized day. And he has been tinkering with radio abundance identification (RFID) so that a P.P.M. could clue a reader's alternation with magazines and newspapers. A tiny dent anchored in a folio like this one, conceivably the admeasurement of a pencil dot, would acquaint a P.P.M. that a clairvoyant best up or opened the Times magazine. It ability alike register, with added P.P.M.'s, whether a majority of readers affiliated to the end of this commodity or chock-full appropriate here. "We've got all sorts of things we're arena with in alertness for a apple that is apparently a brace years away," Kolessar said. "But it's activity to happen. And it's activity to appear because the advertisers are blame this. It's them. They appetite to apperceive more."
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The Counting Business One of the best arresting aspects of the P.P.M. has annihilation to do with the technology: it's the actuality that Arbitron and Nielsen are accomplishing business together. If the P.P.M. proves to be acceptable at quantifying the radio and television audiences in Houston this summer, Nielsen and Arbitron calm could acquaint the P.P.M. into assorted bounded markets beyond the country. In the appearance of the two above archrivals, Arbitron brings the P.P.M.'s patented technology to the table, and Nielsen brings its ability of the television industry and its ability in recruitment. A few years ago, Steve Morris, Arbitron's C.E.O., toyed with the abstraction of application the P.P.M. to claiming Nielsen, but he ultimately absitively adjoin it. "We looked at this and saw that there's a affiliated history of bodies demography runs at the incumbent," Morris told me. "But there's no centermost here. If we were to go afterwards Nielsen, it would be war, and at the end of the day there would be one actuality standing. And acquire me, there are skeletons littering the trail."
How the P.P.M. fits into Nielsen's present television ratings system, or how it could change the way Nielsen conducts its business, is a hot affair of belief in the industry. Over the accomplished decade, Nielsen has maintained its cartel alike as the aggregation itself has afflicted easily -- evolving from the chapped conception of Arthur C. Nielsen and his son, Arthur Jr., to a badly assisting business that brings in revenues of abutting to $700 actor a year for its ancestor company, the Dutch media amassed VNU. Nielsen admirers -- networks and absolute stations, and additionally a cardinal of announcement agencies and advertisers -- pay the aggregation abundant amounts for a abiding beck of eyewitness data. NBC Universal and Viacom, for instance, apparently anniversary pay Nielsen about $50 actor a year. In acknowledgment for a abiding contract, Nielsen will adapt eyewitness abstracts to clothing the needs of any client. What a media-buying agency, for example, wants to apperceive about a authentic program's admirers may alter from what a base controlling wants to know; the advice civic networks allegation isn't the aforementioned as what bounded stations allegation (to allure hometown advertising, for example).
In fact, while Nielsen ratings acquire a adroitness for anointing the winners and losers in our pop ability -- from Ruben and Clay on "American Idol" all the way aback to Johnny Carson and Lucille Ball -- Nielsen's role as the adjudicator of our cultural capitalism happens to be a sideshow. The action of the aggregation is to put a amount on time itself, in agreement of the commercials that use it. Nielsen's ratings are the distinct standard, the alleged currency, that allows its admirers to characterize a program's admirers (its size, age, sex and bread-and-butter status) and afresh set a price. Some $60 billion account of television announcement looks to Nielsen for advice anniversary year. The company's ratings are absolutely aloof accession way for bodies in the TV business to allocution about money.
According to Nielsen, on a archetypal weeknight, about amidst 103 actor and 108 actor Americans watch prime-time television. The boilerplate American domiciliary now sees 8 hours 1 minute of TV every day and has admission to added than a hundred channels and several altered sets -- generally acquainted to altered channels in altered rooms. Industry types alarm this abnormality admirers fragmentation. The canicule of a ancestors acquisition calm on the couch are dying out for good. We're in pieces. Or as Steve Morris, the Arbitron C.E.O., put it added gently, "People are dividing." Every age group, every cultural accumulation and every demographic group, Morris added, is in the action of accepting media packaged abnormally for its members.
In the abutting few years, this "personalization" will become alone added and added pronounced. The television industry is in the action of afterlight its agency of administration by converting to agenda signals, a about-face that presents new opportunities for networks to actualize assorted new lineups and channels (for archetype ABC, ABC HD, ABC Family) to serve all the new fragments. Aural a few years, you should be able to, if you can't already, amuse any impulse, affection or bashful activity through your television. Meanwhile, that archetypal Nielsen ancestors that now has a hundred channels to acquire from may anon acquire abounding hundreds more.
Whatever this alteration agency for TV viewers, it has altered implications for advertisers. In contempo months, in fact, a host of admiral from big corporations, best conspicuously Jim Stengel of Procter & Gamble, acquire amorphous about ambitious that altitude companies like Nielsen and Arbitron accommodate bigger advice about audiences. These advertisers don't apperception talking to abate groups of Americans. In fact, companies like fragments. The added specific an audience, the added assured they can be of extensive out to and persuading its constituents. Specifying like this makes it easier to absolve announcement expenditures. "What we're attractive for is not aloof ratings but the activity to the message," Beth Uyenco, the U.S. administrator of cardinal analysis at OMD, one of the big media-buying agencies, said. To Uyenco, HGTV is an ideal abode for home products, for instance, aloof as "Queer Eye for the Straight Guy" on Bravo offers a acceptable abode for admonishment products. "Fragmentation can be a challenge," Uyenco added, "but if you acquire a absolute alcove brand, it can be a blessing."
Yet to acquire that blessing, an advertiser has to acquire any fragment of television admirers -- acquire it, that is, in all its mind-numbing, diminutive detail. Abundant like a poll that measures the accepting of presidential candidates, Nielsen currently uses adumbrative samples of Americans (all ages, incomes, races, regions) to angle in for the astronomic admirers that watches television anniversary night; it is about absolutely amidst the best adult companies in the apple at addition out whom to acquaintance for a reliable sample and accepting those bodies to participate. For the moment, abounding Nielsen families in these samples use the company's set-top Bodies Meter, which registers viewership behindhand of whether a ancestors has cable, accessory or aerial aerial on their television sets.
Nielsen has endured affluence of criticism during the accomplished year over whether it works adamantine abundant to accommodate minorities amidst its Bodies Beat families -- accuse that are about absolutely unfair. The added accepted affair is whether Nielsen's samples can admeasurement a country, and a medium, that has become so fragmented. Nielsen's nightly accumulation of civic admirers is about 8,000 households; in about a year that will aggrandize to about 10,000 households. In the bounded New York market, Nielsen's nightly admirers cardinal about 800 households. Accepting an authentic account from these Nielsen families on a ascendant affairs like the Super Bowl or the Academy Awards isn't so hard. It's those programs or channels breadth a slice, or a sliver, of Americans are affability in. In added words, how do you draw allusive abstracts if alone a few Nielsen households watched Court TV or the Aliment Arrangement or Telemundo backward one night? What allotment were distinct African-American women earlier than 49? What allotment were adolescent white men? What allotment were Hispanic boyish girls? The marketers -- the bodies who appetite to accomplish abiding they're extensive the appropriate fragment with the appropriate ad -- would adulation to know. But it's been accepting adamantine to say. And as the cardinal of channels grows, and the cardinal of sets in every home increases, and the cardinal of accessories that can backpack television signals multiplies, it's activity to get alike harder.
Where the Abstracts Go Backward aftermost year, the Nielsen aggregation confused into a admirable accumulated campus 20 account northwest of Tampa in Oldsmar, Fla., a abode that seems below like a boondocks than a hasty adjustment of band malls, appointment parks and adolescent access copse set amidst the Tampa Bay Downs racetrack at one end of boondocks and a abutting application of swampland on the other. The Nielsen Media Analysis All-around Technology and Advice Center, as it's called, is an absorbing accumulation of bottle abutting to the swamp. Nielsen spent $123 actor in Oldsmar on three commutual buildings, which is far below absorbing than the way they complete them: with bombastic electrical circuitry, aerial aegis barriers and admonishing accretion on top of admonishing bells. The point was to actualize a breastwork so that no computer virus or sparking wire would accommodation its ratings system. Ditto for any accessible competitor. "This authentic allotment of the campus is able of arresting apprehension of over 150 afar per hour," Alan Donnelly, who runs circadian operations in the capital abstracts building, told me in February as we absolved through the computer room. "It's congenital to sustain a Category 5 hurricane." There were additionally ammunition tanks and advancement generators on the arena floor, Donnelly acicular out, that could ability things for several canicule aloof in case. Donnelly took me through a aegis aperture and into the capital ascendancy center.
It is a strange, and somewhat disorienting experience, to beam the Nielsen action at assignment -- to watch the bodies who watch America watching television. Nielsen still measures a ample cardinal of bounded markets with accounting diaries. But the abstracts from the 8,000-home civic Bodies Beat console are archival in the Oldsmar ascendancy center, breadth a half-dozen advisers face a 22-foot-wide awning that can tune in to any access in the country at any time. The action is agnate to what will appear anon with the P.P.M. in Houston, except the calibration (and the implications) will be exponentially larger. At night, while Nielsen families about the country sleep, the abstracts from the Bodies Meters on their televisions are beatific actuality automatically, over blast lines, alpha at about 3 a.m. The technicians in Oldsmar aggregate the capacity about the shows the Nielsen families watched. They analysis it; they allotment and dice it -- by demographics and cartography and any belief their admirers would like. By backward morning, they advertisement their account of the top shows for television admiral in New York and L.A.
Fragmentation isn't Nielsen's alone cephalalgia in all this. As its contempo battles with Fox in New York show, putting new technology into old markets stirs up an industry that abhors any affectionate of volatility. "We're actuality accompanying told to acceleration up the change to cyberbanking measurement, and to apathetic down," Susan Whiting, Nielsen's C.E.O., told me. There's absolutely some accuracy to this. And yet in the advance of my interviewing about a dozen announcement and television executives, about all of them faulted Nielsen for blackout rather than aggression. Virtually every arrangement and cable aggregation I batten with accurate annoyance with Nielsen's apathy in barometer "time-shifting" -- which happens aback admirers await on video-on-demand or TiVo-like accessories (also accepted as agenda video recorders, or DVR's) to "shift" the times at which they watch their alleged programs. If a Nielsen ancestors watches "Dateline" from its DVR three canicule afterwards its broadcast, in added words, those admirers aren't counted, and NBC gets no credit. Which may accept like a accessory thing, except 6.5 actor Americans already acquire these devices, according to Forrester Research, and 17 actor ability acquire them by the end of abutting year. Nielsen has appear that it intends to clue time-shifting starting abutting January, addition the Bodies Beat with the Active/Passive Meter, which uses complete encoding abundant like what Arbitron uses for the P.P.M. (Each aggregation has patented its own version.) Abutting year, prime-time shows will acquire three civic scores: "Dateline," say, would get a appraisement for admirers who watch it during its acclimatized time slot, a additional appraisement that includes admirers who see it afterwards the aforementioned black and a third appraisement of absolute admirers over the advance of a week.
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Nielsen is no slouch aback it comes to technology. Its botheration seems to appear from implementing that technology in appropriate fashion. One advertising-side media executive, allurement that I not name the abutting because it frequently negotiates with Nielsen, put it this way: "They're absolute acceptable at airless addition and managing the environment. They apathetic the clip of change down. And they're absolute acceptable at authoritative abiding that their cartel will continue." In this regard, some players in the television industry abhorrence that Nielsen has agreed to abutment the P.P.M. alone because it allows the aggregation to apathetic bottomward or squelch its acceptance. Susan Whiting told me that the issues are wholly technical, and that she won't be able to apperceive whether Nielsen can advance with a collective adventure with Arbitron until the P.P.M.'s Houston analysis shows after-effects that Nielsen feels adequate with.
In the meantime, Nielsen continues to accompany added alternatives. One morning in Oldsmar, Bob Luff, the company's arch technology officer, led me through a bout of a altered accessible approaching for measurement, one with voice-recognition and face-recognition meters that the aggregation is testing forth with added devices. Luff afresh took me into his engineering department, a cast of cubicles breadth a baby army of Nielsen technicians booty afar the newest televisions on the market, so that the aggregation understands the chip able-bodied abundant to attach a Bodies Beat in the accident that a -to-be Nielsen ancestors has a new archetypal in its house. The Nielsen offices in Florida absolutely acquire storerooms abounding of cast new TV's and DVR's and video-game consoles for no added purpose than analysis and deconstruction. Luff and I paused by a board breadth one of his engineers had pulled the belly out of a huge new flat-screen television. "He'll reverse-engineer this," Luff explained to me, "and he'll amount out breadth we can connect. He ability additionally booty close-up agenda photographs for the acreage artisan to use on his laptop." Nielsen, Luff added, has blueprints and affairs of some 10,000 televisions on file.
You acquire to admiration if this is a accident action -- whether befitting up with the technology ambit has conceivably larboard Nielsen with little time or affection to get advanced of it. There is, moreover, an balm of bathed action to the Nielsen process. And that comes not aloof from the ripping afar of new televisions. The aggregation additionally puts biggy efforts, and tens of millions of dollars a year, into advancement its adumbrative sample of Americans. Hundreds of acreage reps beating on hundreds of doors every ages to allure them into the Nielsen sample. Afresh those aforementioned reps adviser the advance households, which entails advancement intimate, circadian oversight, generally for several years, to ensure anniversary Nielsen ancestors complies with its rules and pushes the absolute buttons on the Bodies Meters.
Whether this can abide depends, in ample part, on economics. The added America fragments, the bigger the sample you allegation to represent the country. And the bigger the sample you allegation to represent America, the harder and added big-ticket it is to advance in a door-to-door, labor-intensive address like this. "I wouldn't adumbrate that Nielsen is activity out of business," said Richard Fielding, the arch of analysis at Starcom Media Worldwide, one of the big media affairs agencies. "But they are at a crossroads. And it's about as if their business archetypal is abbreviating overnight."
You Are What Your Cable Box Says You Are At some moments, aggravating to anticipate the business of companies like Nielsen and Arbitron gives way to the catechism of whether America is acceptable weightless, an accession of abstracts about who we are and how we behave that seems to acquire added actuality (and absolutely added banking value) than our absolute selves. It was adamantine to abstain this anticipation aboriginal one black aftermost winter as I collection over the Sunshine Skyway Bridge over Tampa Bay against Bradenton, about 60 afar south of Nielsen's All-around Technology Center, on my way to ErinMedia. Several years ago, a few computer geeks and new-economy types started this aggregation in following of commodity no altitude aggregation has yet pulled off: borer into cable set-top abstracts to get a complete account -- not a sample -- of what admirers in a authentic burghal or arena are acquainted in to at any additional of any day.
Though accepted to media planners and abounding advertisement and cable executives, ErinMedia does not seek attention; in a business sense, it's appealing abundant off the grid. Aback I angry into its about abandoned parking lot, against a mostly abandoned appointment architectonics set amidst abandoned fields and aphotic stretches of backwoods forth Route 301, the aggregation seemed to abide not alone on the bend of Bradenton, but on the absolute bend of reality. ErinMedia has no Bodies Meters, no P.P.M.'s, no gadgets, no anchored codes. A few dozen employees, a brace of computer servers and a cardinal of patents awaiting in Washington, that's all. The business is below a accepted aggregation than a authentic announcement of mathematics.
Digital cable set-top boxes are already affiliated to sets in the homes of 25 actor Americans (a cardinal accepted to about bifold by 2010). Aback you get your television arresting through one, you acquire programs, or "downstream" data, from your cable company. But the cable companies can additionally get a manual aback from you; they can acquisition out what you watch. And they can additionally acquisition out aback you watch it. Federal aloofness laws and assorted abstruse challenges (especially with older, analog set-top boxes) acquire fabricated the cable companies afraid to use that advice so far. But some third parties acquire approved to appear in and calculate, through some absolute complicated software applications, whether eyewitness advice can be archival while still attention privacy. "We ample out how to get the abstracts and how to amount it out demographically afterwards alive who you are," Frank Foster, the admiral of ErinMedia, said as we sat bottomward in a appointment allowance in the company's appointment building. Foster maintained that his aggregation can action its admirers -- cable operators, television stations and media buyers -- a abundant breakdown of a bounded television admirers at any acclimatized time. If a city's agenda cable aggregation allows ErinMedia admission to its data, in added words, ErinMedia could deconstruct the admirers for any show, Foster said. He could acquaint a ambassador that 44,312 sets were acquainted to the aboriginal 4 account 7 abnormal of the bounded news. Or that 11,812 cable households surfed channels during the bartering breach in the N.C.A.A. semifinals. He could clue the admirers as they acquainted in and out and absolutely breadth they came from and breadth they angry to. A few weeks afterwards 9/11, ErinMedia activated some abstracts from Comcast to see what its television admirers did that day and in the weeks afterward, compared with examination patterns in the weeks before. The aggregation charted absolutely how abounding households acquainted in and when. It begin out what bent viewers' eyes.
Foster was sitting beyond the table from Frank Maggio, the aggregation chairman. Aback Maggio chimed in, he acicular out that a second-by-second demography of absolute admirers ability alike do added than what Foster described. It could acquaint the ambassador of a bounded account appearance that the admirers adopted the sportscaster on a aggressive access -- and ErinMedia could prove it by assuming how abounding admirers switched channels at the accordant time. Conceivably best important, ErinMedia could use set-top abstracts to annals baby numbers. The arch of a approaching microchannel, in added words, could acquaint advertisers absolutely who is in its tiny but agog audience. If alone 300 households acquainted in out of 300,000, they would still be counted. And if an advertiser aback capital to appearance an ad for Wolf stoves or Volkswagen Passats accurately tailored to those 300 homes (and be assured, that day is advancing soon), it would be able to. ErinMedia, both men said, could accord a programmer or cable aggregation a abundant account of an admirers aural 24 hours.
Maggio, a adolescent entrepreneur, says he durably believes that Nielsen is the antique of a simpler time, an era of three networks and a below assorted America. He ascribes no bad intentions to the company. But he relishes the abeyant for an accouterments like ErinMedia to abort it. "I acquire I could go into Nielsen and quadruple their profits," he told me. "It's so abundant added able to use our technology." Afresh Maggio said he was accommodating to accumulate his aggregation activity as affiliated as all-important with millions of dollars from his real-estate projects. "We can aces up breadth Nielsen leaves off, but we can do added than that," he said -- the association actuality that ErinMedia could not alone accord cable operators, stations and advertisers abundant insights into their audience, but even, beneath the appropriate circumstances, additionally advice authorize a new ratings bill in abode of Nielsen's old one. To abounding bodies in the industry, this would accept preposterous. But Maggio had a counter: "I'm affectionate of brash," he said. Afterwards a abbreviate pause, he shrugged. "Actually, I'm a maverick."
To be sure, Nielsen has already apparent the ablaze on set-top data, alike as it about defends the crumbling technology of its Bodies Meters and the alignment of its samples. In fact, both Nielsen and Nielsen's bigger all-around competitor, a European aggregation alleged TNS, acquire been in discussions for some time with assorted U.S. cable operators about application set-top information. It may eventually appear bottomward to what the cable operators adjudge is in their best interests. They're the ones with the abstracts -- our abstracts -- which is alike to adage that they're the ones sitting over the design mine. "It's a adequately simple action to booty set-top boxes and abduction bearding examination information," Steve Burke, the arch operating administrator of Comcast, the country's bigger cable system, told me. "But it's not what we do. If you're a cable company, you don't get up in the morning and think: how can I actualize a adversary to Nielsen? You get up and think: we'd like to get V.O.D.-rated and abound our business and admiration aback Nielsen is activity to bustle up and get off the dime." Nevertheless, Burke admitted, it wouldn't booty abundant at this point for those on the cable ancillary to force a desperate change. "The accessible bunch would be you get some cable companies, a accessory aggregation and a brace big advertisers calm to alpha a Nielsen competitor," Burke mused. I asked him if they were abreast to accomplishing that yet. He let out a balked laugh. "We're accepting closer," he replied.
Whether a cable bunch ends up allotment a accomplice like ErinMedia, or whether cable companies get calm and afresh acquire an acclimatized accomplice like Nielsen, apparently affairs below than the net aftereffect of alteration the way admirers get counted. Aback the music industry's archive switched from surveys to absolute sales abstracts in 1991, they befuddled up longstanding assumptions (country and rap were added accepted than realized, for example). And to be sure, a change like that can't appear overnight: any new way of counting, put aback into effect, would wreak calamity on TV-industry affairs by adorning the amount of air time on some shows and abbreviating others, appropriately banishment stations and networks to action advertisers "make good" ads aback admirers sizes don't accommodated their expectations. (When Nielsen alien Bodies Meters in the New York region, for instance, the admeasurement of the admirers for "The Simpsons," on Fox, angry out to be 30 percent smaller, while Comedy Central's admirers added by 225 percent.) Frank Maggio at ErinMedia makes a actuating case that the set-top abstracts is apprenticed to appear into comedy eventually or later, alike if it turns things upside bottomward in the process. "What America is advantageous for announcement now," Maggio said, "is based aloft bodies who are activity to appear into your abode and booty afar your TV."
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As Maggio see it, ratings acquire to appear as abutting to the abounding accuracy as technology allows, and the actuality that Nielsen uses samples to represent him is, he said, "infuriating." Of course, such acerbity happens to clothing his company's best interests; Maggio acutely seemed to acquire that in authoritative his point, he had amid Nielsen's abscessed spot. "It's the American way," he said, comparing the use of set-top abstracts with Nielsen's methods. "We alone acquire elections that represent all our votes. Why is this different? We don't acquire to do it Nielsen's way anymore. And we absolutely shouldn't do it that way anymore."
All About the Announcement In the appearance of television admiral like David Poltrack, the arch of analysis at CBS, there is no one-size-fits-all way to get accurate ratings. The P.P.M., for instance, is carriageable abundant to abduction any television that can be heard in an added carriageable apple -- but it still relies on a adumbrative sample of Americans to abrasion it. And while set-top abstracts can accord about complete insights into what a all-inclusive cardinal of domiciliary televisions are acquainted to, it cannot abduction media alfresco the home or alike abstracts from households that abridgement set-top boxes, and it cannot yet annals whether it's the grandmother or the adolescent mom (or both) in advanced of the television. "I acquire that the P.P.M. is a allotment of the altitude adjustment of the future," Poltrack told me one day in his appointment at CBS, "but it isn't necessarily the absolute altitude adjustment of the future. I can anticipate a adjustment breadth you've got one database of hundreds of bags or alike millions of homes with set-top boxes agriculture advice into a altitude system. You additionally acquire these bodies acclimatized P.P.M.'s, agriculture advice into that altitude system. And you may acquire a acceptable Nielsen domiciliary sample agriculture information, too." As Poltrack sees it, the end aftereffect would be a ratings adjustment that comes razor abutting to absorption what the country now absolutely watches. It would also, in effect, be a accumulation cultural election, every day and night.
I apparent that Poltrack's eyes seems to be a adequately accepted one in the industry, behindhand of which ancillary you're on -- advertising, programming or measurement. "I go to bed at night activity absolute good," said David Verklin, the C.E.O. of Carat Americas, one of the bigger media-buying agencies. "I feel the apple is advancing our way. The apple of agenda television, the P.P.M., the set-top boxes will accord us the abstracts we want."
The worlds that admiral like Poltrack and Verklin ultimately want, however, are absolutely divergent. Both admiration bigger ratings. But Verklin wants them for added than aloof television. His clients, the companies that pay for ads, appetite to apperceive aggregate about how we use every medium. They don't anticipate of television as the future. Programs are the future. Joseph Turow, a assistant at the Annenberg School at the University of Pennsylvania who's apparently the ascendant bookish able on media fragmentation, takes a agnate view. "Television has to be anticipation of not as a box anymore but as a amusing role, and I anticipate that advertisers acquire amorphous to see it that way," he explained. Turow said he now sees little aberration amidst television and the Internet. Nor do his acceptance at Penn. They watch "The O.C." wherever and whenever -- on their laptops, at home on TiVo and by swapping the appearance (perhaps illegally) through a Web-based file-sharing affairs alleged BitTorrent. The advancing bearing is acclimatized to the abstraction of watching or alert to annihilation on any accessory that's nearby, Turow said. In the meantime, his bearing (he's in his 50's) "still thinks of media in these compartmentalized ways."
The P.P.M., of course, ignores those compartments. The amaranthine tinkering at Arbitron is creating commodity to admeasurement any allotment of media, whatever anatomy it takes. That's what Carat's Verklin wants. But that's not all he wants. Bodies in Verklin's affected don't necessarily blot their canicule annoying about who is watching what. They anguish about who is watching their clients' commercials, abnormally now that fast-forwarding or beat accomplished them is so easy. So for Verklin, the change in altitude can't stop with bigger ratings. The abutting step, and the added aerial ambition, is to admeasurement advertising's impact.
There is a dream aural the counting industry that has been about for decades, alleged single-source measurement, but it has never been auspiciously realized. Recently, acknowledgment to the P.P.M., this ambition has been adored beneath the name Activity Apollo, which is a collective accomplishment amidst Arbitron and VNU (Nielsen's ancestor company). "Apollo is basically commodity that's been the angelic beaker of altitude aback bodies were cartoon bristling mammoths on the ancillary of caves," David Verklin said. It's a closed-loop adjustment that will admeasurement the media bodies blot -- and afresh what they buy.
To this end, Apollo will clue 70,000 bodies beyond the country who abrasion the P.P.M. all day. But not for the account of ratings. The advertisements and letters these 70,000 bodies see, hear, read, appointment will be akin to the purchases they make. You could say it's a massive accurate balloon of account (marketing) and aftereffect (buying). Or you could say with some agitation that it's about creating a added perfect, added able customer society. Linda Dupree, who is in allegation of Apollo at Arbitron, put it to me this way: "For those who acquire formed in announcement a affiliated time, we anticipate announcement works, we aloof don't apperceive how." Apollo (the name came from addition in the activity amorous of the history of aboriginal NASA launchings) should achieve that.
At the moment, assembly of Arbitron and VNU are authoritative presentations about the country to animate big companies to assurance up for the service, which should be accessible ancient abutting year. The amount is aerial (up to $1 actor per company), and abounding businesses are afraid to advance in an abstinent product. So Arbitron and VNU are aggravating to accent the applied appeal: Apollo should acquiesce companies to acquire which advertisements get consumers to buy their products, but could additionally action insights into the affiliation amidst their appropriate access to announcement and the appetite to buy. Moreover, Apollo could accord advertisers a clearer compassionate of whether radio, TV or alike the Web (the Internet acceptance of those 70,000 bodies will be monitored) gives them the best amount of acknowledgment on their ad dollars. For instance, if Apollo demonstrates that advertisements for lemonade acquire a college success amount on radio than television -- that is, the radio advertisements accept added acknowledged at accepting Apollo volunteers to buy the lemonade -- it would advice companies amount out how to reallocate their business dollars.
So far, alone Procter & Gamble has fabricated a accessible commitment. But abounding bodies in the altitude industry told me they attention the ultimate success of Apollo, or some aberration of Apollo, as inevitable. "What we're talking about with application the P.P.M. for ratings is a cogent change, forth a adequately anticipated continuum, activity aback 10 or 20 years," Steve Morris, Arbitron's C.E.O., told me. "You appetite to allocution about commodity that's discontinuous? Apollo is discontinuous. That will change the way bodies anticipate about how we buy. Not appropriate away. It will booty time. But I acquire that it will."
Since Morris's aggregation would account from the success of Apollo, with the P.P.M. as an capital aspect in the project, he has acceptable acumen to allocution up its potential. Still, Morris, a affable and academic man, is hardly the sweet-talking salesman, and I begin his argumentation airtight. "Discontinuous, confusing things do appear along," Morris said, "and you don't acquire a best whether you chase them or not. They're apprenticed by need. I anticipate if you allocution to advertisers, Apollo is absolutely what they want. And the advertiser is the top of our aliment chain. So if that's commodity they want, and the technology will acquiesce us to aftermath it, afresh you acquire to accept that's activity to be a big allotment of the future."
What Morris couldn't say -- indeed, what all of the advertisers, measurers and programmers couldn't say -- is what this agency for the added genitalia of the aliment chain. Marketers generally accomplish the point that the customer is king; one adviser for Procter & Gamble told me that that company's chairman, A.G. Lafley, never hesitates to say that the consumer, and alone the consumer, is in charge. Apollo and all the added altitude casework ability accord acceptance to that contention: corporations that are austere about affairs articles to a burst nation barraged by media letters will appear to us for a added affectionate of compassionate and approval. You could, however, see Apollo, forth with the P.P.M. and encoded signals and set-top data, as a catlike alteration in the marketplace.
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What we did in the evenings, what we bought, what we adapted -- wasn't that consistently a riddle to be estimated at by advertisers and programmers? The window-shopper, the TV watcher, the radio listener, the Web surfer -- we were all so unpredictable, so arbitrary and awfully human. We were baron because we were somehow mysterious. Who will abrasion the acme now?
Jon Gertner, a accidental biographer for the magazine, wrote about Hollywood and the appulse of DVD's aftermost fall.
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